Bucks vs. Heat Prediction and Odds for November 26: Bucks to Stay Hot Against the Heat?

The Milwaukee Bucks (8-9) are looking to continue their recent surge as they take on a mainstay in Eastern Conference championship contention, the Miami Heat (7-7).

The Bucks are only 1-6 on the road but won six of their last seven games following a woeful start to the season. Meanwhile, the Heat are coming off back-to-back victories against the Philadelphia 76ers and Dallas Mavericks.

Here, we will break down the betting odds and share our favorite picks for the Bucks vs. Heat matchup.

Bucks vs. Heat Betting Odds for Tuesday, November 26

The Bucks are 6-10-1 (37.5 percent) against the spread, 2-5 (28.6) percent ATS on the road, and 1-3 (25 percent) ATS as an underdog.

The Heat are 7-7 (50 percent) ATS, 2-4 (33.3 percent) ATS at home, and 4-4 (50 percent) ATS as a favorite.

The following odds for the Bucks vs Heat game are courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook. Place your bets at BetMGM and claim up to $1,500 in bonus bets* with our promo code WSNSPORTS.

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Bucks vs. Heat Prediction

Milwaukee Bucks Preview

It doesn’t take a genius to know that the last season and change did not pan out the way the Bucks hope. The acquisition of Damian Lillard was supposed to unlock an already-lethal Milwaukee offense even further by providing them with a long-range sniper and late-game closer.

While Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo played well but sometimes struggled to get on the same page, head coach Doc Rivers is only 26-29 as Milwaukee’s head coach. 

The hope for players, coaches, and fans of the team is that their recent turnaround is a sign of things to come. They only had a couple of good wins and did not beat a team better than the Houston Rockets during this stretch, which means the jury is still out on their potential as a contender.

There are a couple of reasons for the Bucks’ recent improvements that are unrelated to Giannis playing out of his mind. One of them is better usage of Lillard, who’s struggling from three but who is getting to the free-throw line and averaged 8.0 assists per game in November. 

A rotation adjustment, specifically giving more minutes to Andre Jackson Jr. and AJ Green, provided defense and shooting to a Bucks’ lineup that desperately needed both. 

The Bucks are 14th in offensive and 17th in defensive rating for the year. Neither of those is awful and suggests they may improve, but it’s a fair reflection of why they’re hovering around .500.

An area that Milwaukee can control is its level of effort, which is reflected by its rebound rate (23rd) and turnovers forced per game (25th). That comes from solid coaching, which again is in question due to Rivers’ tumultuous tenure.

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Miami Heat Preview

If resting on one’s laurels was a basketball team, it would be the Heat.

As much of a basketball legend as Pat Riley is, he and Erik Spoelstra have allowed their team to get old, failed to replace important players, and are relying almost entirely on excellent coaching to keep the Heat in contention in the East.

While Miami is 11th in defensive rating, it is only 18th in offensive efficiency and is 0.9 points per 100 possessions ahead of the Bucks. They also have a near-even scoring differential at home, though the Bucks were outscored by 8.5 points per 100 possessions on the road.

Miami is only average at defending the three-point line but is seventh in shooting percentage. Meanwhile, Milwaukee (11th in three-point percentage) ranks 25th in three-point defense, creating a mathematical advantage for the home team. 

Tyler Herro has fully taken the role of Miami’s primary option and averaged 23.8 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 5.1 assists on 42.6 percent three-point shooting. 

The Heat used to do a better job guarding Giannis than anybody, though he averaged 31 points, 10.8 rebounds, and 6.5 assists in his last four full games against them.

These teams are nearly identical in clutch situations. The Bucks are 19th and the Heat are 20th in clutch net rating, which means that it could become a coin flip if the game is close down the stretch.

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Bucks vs. Heat Betting Pick

• Bucks vs. Heat pick: Bucks +2.5 (-110) at BetMGM

Giannis played exceptional ball recently, but he now needs to go on the road where his Bucks are 1-6. Miami is just about even at home, but that’s still significantly better than what the visitors put on tape on the road thus far.

The Bucks got an extra day of rest between matchups, which is noteworthy. They also seem to have hit their stride with their reworked rotation and have a solid chance to continue their improvement, albeit not win games at the same rate they did recently.

This has all of the makings of a close matchup, but Giannis is hot, and the Bucks might finally have some momentum after going a year without it. We’d take them to win and cover on the road. 

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How to Watch Bucks vs. Heat on 11/26/24

• When: Tuesday, Nov. 26 @ 7:00 P.M. ET

• Where: Kaseya Center, Miami, FL

• TV: TNT

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