The Milwaukee Bucks (1-3) are looking to stop a three-game skid as they prepare to visit the Memphis Grizzlies (2-3) on Thursday night.
The early returns on the Bucks are not encouraging, coming off of a season during which they went 18-20 after they hired Doc Rivers. Meanwhile, the Grizz have already played five games after nine days in the new season, and Desmond Bane and Marcus Smart suffered injuries in Wednesday's matchup with the Brooklyn Nets.
Here, we will analyze the odds and share our favorite betting picks for the Bucks vs. Grizzlies showdown.
The Bucks are 1-3 against the spread, 1-2 ATS as a favorite, and 1-2 ATS on the road.
The Grizzlies are 1-4 ATS, 0-1 ATS as an underdog, and 1-2 ATS at home.
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Teams | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
---|---|---|---|
Milwaukee Bucks | -6.5 (-110) | -250 | Over 226.5 (-110) |
Memphis Grizzlies | +6.5 (-110) | +200 | Under 226.5 (-110) |
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The Bucks are close to being in a complete crisis. Their disappointing finish to last year combined with a losing start to the new campaign have created a plethora of questions related to their coach, the futures of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard, and the viability of success this season.
Antetokounmpo and Lillard are both off to strong individual starts. The Greek Freak averaged 28.8 points, 11.8 rebounds, and 6.3 assists on 62 percent field goal shooting, while Lillard posted a line of 28 points, 6.3 assists, and 6.0 rebounds on 47.1 percent shooting.
The pair’s strong start to the year makes the team’s record even more concerning. They also haven’t found a reliable third option, as Brook Lopez’s and Bobby Portis’ 11.3 points per game are tied for the third-highest on the team.
Milwaukee is 19th in rebound rate, 22nd in defensive rating, and 24th in assist-to-turnover ratio. They allowed teams to make 37.1 percent (17th) of their three-point attempts and are 20th in made threes per game (11.8), which is also a major issue considering the attention that Antetokounmpo draws when he attacks the basket.
The Bucks’ stars’ level of talent is too high for them to ever be out of contention, but the two have a net rating of -4.2 when they’re on the court together.
To sum all of this up, Milwaukee does not look to be in a good place right now.
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A couple of years ago, the Grizzlies were the second seed in the Western Conference. They fell off the map last year due to a plethora of injuries and are now trying to re-stake their claim as one of the best teams in the NBA.
Memphis dropped back-to-back contests against two teams (the Chicago Bulls and Nets) that aren’t expected to be contenders come spring of next year. They also beat the Orlando Magic but haven’t really gotten into their rhythm just yet.
Taylor Jenkins has done something very interesting, which is not to play anyone on the roster for more than 27.8 minutes per night. That includes Ja Morant, Demond Bane, and Jaren Jackson Jr., all of whom are between 25-26.5 minutes per contest.
The three averaged between 18.8 and 20.7 points per game. They posted a +25.5 net rating during their time on the court together, though that only came in 25 total minutes.
Memphis as a whole is 13th in offensive rating and 23rd in defensive rating. They also have not become a profound rebounding team despite the presence of 7-foot-4 rookie center Zach Edey.
Additionally, the Grizzlies allowed the third-highest three-point percentage (39.8) to opponents thus far. That spells trouble against the Bucks, even if the latter isn’t in the best run of form.
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Bucks vs. Grizzlies pick: Bucks -6.5 (110) at BetMGM
Both of these teams are working to find out who they are. The Grizzlies likely have the higher ceiling since more than 40 games with Rivers have revealed Milwaukee’s true colors, yet they’re the better team in the short term.
Milwaukee has not done anything to warrant being 6.5-point road favorites, but Memphis is banged up.
We’re not confident in their championship ability, but a healthy Bucks team is the best bet here.
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When: Thursday, Oct. 31 at 7:00/8:00 p.m. CT/ET
Where: FedEx Forum, Memphis, TN
TV: NBA TV
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