Joel Embiid Over 34.5 Points (-113) at FanDuel
Embiid has been a terror whenever he’s faced the Washington Wizards recently, putting up 48 and 50 games in two meetings this season. He gave them the 50-piece just last week on 65.5% shooting and can dominate anyone that Washington has in its rotation of centers.
The reigning MVP leads the league in scoring at 33.3 points per night. He also had a full weekend off to rest and should take over on Monday night as the Philadelphia 76ers continue their fight for the Eastern Conference title. Our only major concern is Philly could blow Washington out and Embiid could leave the court early, but last week’s game ended in a close 131-126, and Embiid played 38 minutes.
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Julius Randle 12+ Rebounds (+200) at FanDuel
Randle grabs an average of 9.7 rebounds per night. He hasn’t hit 12+ in four games (and recorded 20 rebounds in the game he last went over), but the New York Knicks’ leading rebounder, Mitchell Robinson, is out with an injury, which should give Randle a greater opportunity to crash the glass.
The Knicks lead the league in rebounding percentage and understand that dominating the glass is a key to their way of winning games. The Raptors do a nice job rebounding as a team but don’t have any dominant rebounders, and we like Randle to get busy on the interior. His regular line of over 9.5 is also a strong play.
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Damian Lillard Over 23.5 Points (-125) at FanDuel
Things haven't been perfect in Lillard’s first season with the Milwaukee Bucks, but he’s still averaged 25.6 points per game and has been one of the best players in the league during clutch time. He went over in three straight games and in seven of his last eight and should continue that trend on Monday night.
The Bucks are taking on the Chicago Bulls, who aren’t good at defense but play at a slow pace and limit opponents’ opportunities. Lillard only scored 18 points on 16 shots when these teams played on Nov. 30 and 12 points on 3-17 shooting during an early-season game, but he’s found a more consistent role and should have enough to cash the over.
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Victor Wembanyama Over 10.5 Rebounds (-113) at FanDuel
Wemby has taken on more responsibility on the glass as the season has progressed and now averages 10.2 rebounds per game. His last game, also his first starting without Zach Collins next to him, resulted in him grabbing 20 rebounds in only 32 minutes against the Bulls, which is a good precedent ahead of Monday’s showdown with the Houston Rockets.
Houston does a lot of good things defensively but is only 13th in rebound rate, putting them right about league average. They’re also 19th in field goal percentage and will miss enough shots to give Wemby a strong chance to go over his total.
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Tim Hardaway Jr. Over 19.5 Points (-108) at FanDuel
Hardaway Jr. is averaging 16.9 points per game, the most of his six-year career with the Dallas Mavericks. He scored 20 points in 37 minutes against the Portland Trail Blazers his last time out and is in line for an expanded role in the offense following Kyrie Irving’s injury.
The Mavs are taking on the Memphis Grizzlies, who are down their best perimeter defender in Marcus Smart, and only rank 21st in defensive rating over the last 10 games. Luka Doncic is going to attract a majority of the defense’s attention, which should leave Hardaway open to star in Irving’s absence.
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