NBA Player Props and Best Bets: Back Mitchell, Fade Holmgren and Take this Playoff SGP

The NBA Playoffs have not disappointed up until this point, and I’ve got five player prop picks to share for Friday’s action.

The Minnesota Timberwolves routed the Golden State Warriors to tie the series at one apiece yesterday, but the big news is still that the Boston Celtics threw away two 20-point second-half leads and trail the New York Knicks 2-0 ahead of Saturday’s Game 3.

Friday’s slate begins with the Indiana Pacers hosting the Cleveland Cavaliers and will end with the Denver Nuggets welcoming the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder into their arena.

Here are my top five NBA player prop picks for Friday.

Additionally, be sure to check out our prediction for the Cavaliers vs. Pacers and Thunder vs. Nuggets matchup.

Odds for today's NBA prop bets are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Place a $5 wager at FanDuel Sportsbook and receive $200 in bonus bets if your bet wins.

Best NBA Prop Bets for Friday, May 9

Christian Braun Over 5.5 Rebounds (-114) at FanDuel

Braun, like many players on the Nuggets, had his stats affected by the lack of minutes he played in the 149-106 Game 2 blowout loss. However, he swallowed up 14 rebounds in Game 1 after he went over in four of seven games in round one against the Los Angeles Clippers.

The Thunder are still not a great rebounding team, and Braun is a guard who is active on the boards, averaging 5.2 per game. He is also likely to play heavy minutes in part due to the shoulder injury that has plagued Michael Porter Jr. and seeing as he played 40 minutes in Game 1.

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Donovan Mitchell Over 29.5 Points (-122) at FanDuel

Mitchell is fresh off a 48-point explosion in Game 2 and also had 33 points in Game 1, bringing him to an average of 40.5 points per game on efficient 46.7 percent shooting. That’s despite him being absolutely abysmal from three-point land and suggests he can get even better if he knocks down his shots.

Mitchell also scored 35 in one of two regular-season face-offs with the Pacers and regularly raises his level in the playoffs, averaging 28.2 points per game compared to his regular-season average of 24.7. He’s a high-volume shooter who will score tons of points in high-leverage games, and I love him on this line.

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Andrew Nembhard Over 5.5 Assists (-102) at FanDuel

Nembhard has quietly been outstanding in the playoffs, averaging 15.9 points and 6.1 assists per game and 9.5 assists per game in the second round. He dropped off 13 dimes in Game 2 and now gets to head back to his home court, where he and the Pacers have the chance to take a 3-0 series lead.

The Cavs allowed the Pacers to register assists on nearly two-thirds of their buckets, while Indy shot a playoff-best 52.4 percent from the floor over their last two games. Tyrese Haliburton is going to draw most of Cleveland’s defensive attention on the perimeter, which should give Nembhard the operating space to go over this line.

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Max Strus Over 2.5 Threes (-114) at FanDuel

Strus played 39 minutes and made five threes in Game 2 due to injuries to Evan Mobley, Darius Garland, and De’Andre Hunter, all of whom are questionable for Game 3. He only made two threes in Game 1 but still took eight attempts in 32 minutes, meaning he should have enough opportunities to go over.

Strus made 3.2 three-pointers per game and shot 41.3 percent from deep in the playoffs thus far and has been one of the only players to show signs of life from the perimeter against this Indy defense. He’ll get worse defenders if his injured teammates return, and he’ll get more minutes if they don’t—either way is a win-win.

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Chet Holmgren Under 15.5 Points (-118) at FanDuel

The 23-year-old scored 15 points but still only shot 37.5 percent from the field even in a 149-106 annihilation in Game 2. He’s now two-for-two on unders in this series after scoring 12 in Game 1 and averaging 13.5 points on 42.1 percent shooting (33.3 percent from three) in the series.

To add to that, Holmgren went under this line in three of four regular-season encounters with the Nuggets, and the only time he went over was on opening night. I haven’t seen a dog-like mentality from him in this series and believe that he is bothered by the size and strength of Nikola Jokic and Aaron Gordon. 

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NBA Same-Game Parlay (+328) at FanDuel

- Oklahoma City Thunder at Denver Nuggets (-5.5)

• Jamal Murray 20+ points: Scored 21 in Game 1 and went over in three of his last five, and he does the best job in NBA history of raising his scoring in the playoffs. 

• Nikola Jokic over 13.5 rebounds: Had 22 boards in Game 1, averaged 15.5 rebounds per game in six regular-season and playoff matchups with OKC.

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 30+ points: Went over in both games in the series and in four straight, averaged 32.7 points during the regular season.

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