NBA Player Props and Best Bets: Brown, Gordon Overs and a Special Playoff SGP

It’s Tuesday, which means another day for me to share my top five player prop picks for the first round of the NBA playoffs.

The Golden State Warriors took a commanding 3-1 lead over the Houston Rockets with a hard-fought, three-point win, while the Cleveland Cavaliers set an all-time record for the most lopsided series victory with their sweep of the Miami Heat.

Tuesday’s schedule is loaded with four matchups, three of which involve teams leading or trailing 3-1. The final showdown will pit the Los Angeles Clippers against the Denver Nuggets with their series tied 2-2 and returning to Mile High.

Read our in-depth predictions for Pistons vs. Knicks and Clippers vs. Nuggets.

Here are my best NBA prop bets for Tuesday.

Best NBA Prop Bets for Tuesday, April 29

Jaylen Brown Over 1.5 Threes

Brown only attempted 3.5 three-pointers per game in this series against the Orlando Magic, well done from his season average of 5.7. However, he shot 42.9 percent from deep and is still in a solid shooting rhythm, even if he isn’t getting as many opportunities as he’s accustomed to.

The reigning Finals MVP went under in three of four games in the series, but with him, Derrick White, and Jayson Tatum all available for Game 5, the Boston Celtics should be able to move the ball and create open looks. The Magic have a terrific defense, but there’s real value here at positive odds for a low line.

Bennedict Mathurin Over 2.5 Rebounds

Mathurin, the sixth pick in the 2022 NBA Draft, only played 18,7 minutes per game in this series against the Milwaukee Bucks and did not participate in Game 4. That said, he went over in two of three games after he averaged 5.3 rebounds per game during the regular season.

The Bucks just lost a backcourt piece in Damian Lillard, who suffered a torn Achilles in Game 4, and feel very down on their luck facing a 3-1 deficit. Mathurin could get more minutes in the event this turns into a blowout, and he’ll likely get extra rebounding opportunities since the Bucks will have diminished shot-making without Lillard.

Gary Trent Jr. Over 12.5 Points

Trent Jr. has had himself quite the series, scoring 14, four, 37, and six points in four games. He shot 54.1 percent from the field, 51.9 percent from three, and 87.5 percent from the line and played 30.8 minutes per contest, which helps give me the confidence to bet his over despite his inconsistent scoring output.

Lillard, as mentioned, is out, which means more shots and minutes will be available to the Bucks guards. Trent Jr. is going to have to take shots to make up for his absence, and that should help him get over in a desperate game against a hungry Indiana Pacers squad.

Cade Cunningham Under 1.5 Threes

Cunningham is not a high-volume three-point shooter—everyone knows that. But his volume and efficiency have both been extremely low in this series against the New York Knicks as he made just 25 percent of his 4.0 three-point attempts per game in the first four matchups.

This is not to say that Cunningham hasn’t been effective, as he averaged 25.8 points, 9.0 assists, and 8.8 rebounds per game, but he just hasn’t been a willing long-range shooter. The Knicks also allowed the fifth-fewest made threes per game among playoff teams, and Cunningham seems more focused on getting to the rim anyway.

Aaron Gordon Over 15.5 Points

Gordon has been outstanding on the offensive glass against a usually-reliant rebounding Clippers team, averaging 3.8 offensive boards per game in the series. He went under in three straight games after dropping 25 in the opener, but he’s still shooting the three-ball well and is getting tons of second-chance opportunities.

The Nuggets have been hanging on by a thread in this series, but they have life after Gordon’s game-winning buzzer-beater in Game 4 and heading back to their home court. He’s playing 39.8 minutes per game and is trusted to step up in key moments, and I like Gordon to deliver en route to Denver taking a 3-2 series lead.

NBA Same-Game Parlay (+307) at FanDuel

-Los Angeles Clippers (-2) at Denver Nuggets

• Nikola Jokic 25+ points: Went over this line in three of four games in the series and had 36 points in 43 minutes in his last outing.

• Ivica Zubac under 12.5 rebounds: Went under in three of four games, including the last three, while the Nuggets have dominated on the boards so far.

• James Harden under 9.5 assists: Split the over/under in the series, but the Nuggets’ defense is playing well above its season standard and has a great chance at home.

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