NBA Player Props and Best Bets: Fade Butler, VanVleet, and a Playoff SGP

The NBA Playoffs are back in action on Monday, and I’m ready to share my top five player props from the action.

The biggest news coming out of Sunday’s games was that the Minnesota Timberwolves took a 3-1 lead over the Los Angeles Lakers, while the New York Knicks did the same amid controversy against the Detroit Pistons. The Boston Celtics and Indiana Pacers are also up 3-1 over the Orlando Magic and Milwaukee Bucks, respectively.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are looking for a sweep against the Miami Heat in the early game, while the Houston Rockets are hoping to tie the Golden State Warriors at 2-2 in the evening.

Read our in-depth predictions for Cavaliers vs. Heat and Rockets vs. Warriors.

Here are my best NBA player prop picks for Monday.

Best NBA Prop Bets for Monday, April 28

Jalen Green Over 4.5 Rebounds (-136) at FanDuel

Green went over in two of three games in this series and has a chance to continue to go over if the defenses continue to play as well as they have, creating more rebounding opportunities even at a slow pace. The Rockets have also been nothing short of dominant on the glass in this series, albeit they still find themselves in a 2-1 series hole.

Jimmy Butler’s return to the lineup may help the Warriors’ offense, but it’s unclear if he’ll be at his full level of commitment on defense and on the glass. This is also a desperate situation for the Rockets, and I expect Green to be fully bought in and to look to contribute wherever he can.

Tyler Herro Over 24.5 Points (-108) at FanDuel

Herro and Darius Garland have gone back and forth over their level of defensive impact, and with the Miami Heat down 3-0 in the series and potentially ready to have their season ended, I expect to see Herro take a ton of shots. He only scored 13 on 13 shots in Game 3, and I think this will be more like when he scored 33 on 24 shots in Game 2.

The Cavs have clearly been the better team in this series, and there’s no need for them to abandon their usual game plan and send a ton of resources at Herro. That should leave him open to take as many shots as he wants, and for the Heat to probably lose in four games.

Darius Garland Over 16.5 Points (-132) at FanDuel

Garland did not play in Game 3 but scored 27 and 21 points in the first two games of the series. He, like the rest of his teammates, has posted efficient shooting splits even against Miami’s stout defense, and he should be up for the challenge of answering the trash talk exchanged with Herro.

Garland went over against the Heat in three of their four meetings including the regular season, and the strength of Miami’s defense, with respect to Davion Mitchell, is largely on the wings and interior. There are just too many bases for the Heat to cover, which is why I’m bullish on Garland.

Fred VanVleet Under 2.5 Threes (+102) at FanDuel

VanVleet has been flat-out horrendous in this series, so much so that the Rockets might look to move off of him once this season ends. The one-time NBA champ only made 20.7 percent of his 9.7 threes per game and went under in two of three games in the series, even after going over (3-9) in his last outing.

The Warriors held the Rockets to 10.7 made threes per game on 33.3 percent shooting, both among the lowest in the playoffs. Having shot just 26.8 percent from the floor in the series, there’s little reason to believe that VanVleet will bounce back in Game 4.

Jimmy Butler Under 5.5 Assists (-114) at FanDuel

Butler barely played in Game 2, one which he finished with no assists in eight minutes. He had six assists and cashed the over in Game 1, but that was after he played 42 minutes.

The Warriors are in a comfortable 2-1 lead and are unlikely to play Butler 42 minutes again, seeing as he is coming back from an injury. Curry has also been outstanding and will likely spend more time with the ball in his hands, limiting Butler’s possibilities for assists.

NBA Same-Game Parlay (+323) at FanDuel

-Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors (-3.5)

• Stephen Curry 25+ points: Went over in two of three and scored 30+ in five of seven, and he has been largely unaffected by Houston’s terrific defense.

• Alperen Sengun over 18.5 points: Only went over in Game 1, but leads the team in field goal attempts per game and is usually much more efficient than he has been.

• Amen Thompson over 3.5 assists: Went over in his last game and in two of three in the series and played a series-high 37 minutes in Game 3. 

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