NBA Player Props and Best Bets: Dame Under, Banchero Over and a Lakers-Timberwolves SGP

The end of the week has arrived, which means that it’s time to share my best NBA player prop bets for the Friday playoff schedule.

The Oklahoma City Thunder rallied from a 29-point differential to beat the Memphis Grizzlies, while the New York Knicks staved off the resilient Detroit Pistons in a two-point win to take a 2-1 series lead. The Los Angeles Clippers also embarrassed the Denver Nuggets to go up 2-1 in their series.

Friday’s games start with the Boston Celtics facing the Orlando Magic and the Indiana Pacers visiting the Milwaukee Bucks, before the Minnesota Timberwolves welcome the Los Angeles Lakers.

Read our in-depth predictions for Pacers vs. Bucks and Lakers vs. Timberwolves.

Here are my top five player props for the NBA playoffs on Friday.

Best NBA Prop Bets for Friday, April 25

Damian Lillard Under 22.5 Points

Lillard only scored 14 points on 30.8 percent shooting in his return to the court in Game 2 after he missed more than a month due to a blood clot. He also went under this line in five of six games immediately before he was ruled out, which does not bode well for his chances here.

The Bucks were much better at home than they were on the road, but the Pacers are playing well, and Andrew Nembhard has given Lillard trouble throughout the season. I don’t trust him to find his shooting rhythm after all of the time off and being dropped into the middle of a playoff series.

Andrew Nembhard Under 10.5 Points

Speaking of Nembhard, he had 17 points in both Games 1 and 2, but he outperformed his season averages by posting 61/50/100 shooting splits. The Bucks tendency to perform better on their home court combined with the Pacers being a .500 team on the road is certainly something to consider here.

Even though I expect Lillard to go under, he should start to get his conditioning back and do a better job on Nembhard. The Pacers are also in a position where they can take their foot off the gas and potentially have a let-down game since they are up two games to none in the series.

Paolo Banchero Over 4.5 Assists

Banchero dropped seven dimes in Game 2 against the Celtics, which was played without the injured Jayson Tatum. That’s significant since Tatum appears primed to miss Game 3 as well, especially with the Celtics up 2-0 without any real danger of ceding momentum in the series.

Banchero averaged 4.8 assists per game and had six when he played the Celtics in the final games of the regular season, which was part of him going over this line in three of his last four games. I expect him to play well in front of his home fans and maybe even help steal a win.

Derrick White Over 16.5 Points

White is doing the thing he does when he turns into Steph Curry in the playoffs, making five threes per game on 45.5 percent shooting from range. He dropped 30 points in Game 1 and 17 in Game 2 and should get to take a ton of shots if Tatum is unable to go because of his wrist problem.

The Magic have an outstanding defense, but White has a knack for getting quick-release shots up early in the shot clock and will spend time as the primary ball-handler. Orlando will likely shade its defense in the direction of Jaylen Brown since he had 36 in Game 2, leaving more room for White.

Austin Reaves Over 2.5 Threes

It’s been a tough shooting series for Reaves, who just went 0-6 from three and shot 21.4 percent from the perimeter. That said, he took seven attempts per game and still split the over/under, and he’s gotten quality looks he would normally knock down.

Reaves made 2.7 threes per game on 37.7 percent shooting during the regular season and was even better after Luka Doncic arrived. The Lakers appear to have caught up to the Timberwolves’ level of intensity, and I expected Reaves to have his first really strong game of the series.

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-Los Angeles Lakers at Minnesota Timberwolves (-3)

• LeBron James over 22.5 points: Has not been himself in this series, but would’ve gone over in Games 1 and 2 if he was near his usual level of efficiency.

• Mike Conley under 3.5 assists: Has been a relative non-factor at all levels and only played 21.5 minutes per game, and there’s no obvious era for him to impact the game.

• Luka Doncic 8+ rebounds: Went over in both games and averaged 8.2 rebounds per game during his time with the Lakers.

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