NBA Player Props and Best Bets: Green and Herro to Struggle, Plus a Playoff SGP

The NBA Playoffs are heating up, and I have five must-see player prop bets for Wednesday’s games.

The Oklahoma City Thunder blew out the Memphis Grizzlies for the second time running, while the Indiana Pacers overcame Damian Lillard’s return to take a 2-0 lead in their series with the Milwaukee Bucks. Luka Doncic also came up just one assist short of a triple-double as the Los Angeles Lakers beat the Minnesota Timberwolves to knot their series at 1-1.

Wednesday’s games feature the top seeds in the East as the Boston Celtics take on the Orlando Magic and the Cleveland Cavaliers host the Miami Heat. The night ends with the Golden State Warriors looking to take a 2-0 lead over the Houston Rockets despite being on the road.

Here are my top five NBA player prop bets for Wednesday.

Best NBA Prop Bets for Wednesday, April 23

Jrue Holiday Under 4.5 Assists

Holiday averaged 3.9 assists per game but had five in Game 1 of this series. The conventional wisdom is that, since Jayson Tatum is likely to miss the game with a wrist injury, Holiday will have more time with the ball in his hands and have an easier time going over his assists line, but that isn’t exactly true.

Holiday still averaged 4.3 assists per game in six games without Tatum and split the over/under at three apiece. He’s now going against the stout defense of the Orlando Magic, which allowed the fewest assists per game, and Tatum’s missing shot-making will make assists harder to come by.

Tyler Herro Under 4.5 Rebounds

Herro had three rebounds in a 21-point loss in Game 1 on Sunday. He averaged 5.2 rebounds per game but went under in back-to-back games and in four of his last six outings, and the Cleveland Cavaliers have a dominant rebounding frontcourt with the double-big pairing of Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley.

Between what the Cavs have to offer on the front line and Bam Adebayo, Kel’El Ware, and Andrew Wiggins, there simply won’t be a ton of opportunities to rebound the ball. Herro went over in both regular-season matchups with the Cavs, but Cleveland won the rebounding battle 42-37 and shot 51.1 percent from the field in Game 1, which created fewer possible rebounds.

Jalen Green Under 4.5 Rebounds

Green was awful in Game 1 with seven points on 3-15 shooting. Ironically, the one area in which he excelled was on the glass, but his eight rebounds should prove to be nothing more than a fortunate outlier in this series.

Green went under in six straight games just before Game 1 and, in all likelihood, won’t get as many rebounds with Steven Adams, Alperen Sengun, and Amen Thompson all playing heavy minutes and being much better rebounders. This series also looks like it will be played at a snail’s pace, which means fewer shots and fewer possible rebounds.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Over 1.5 Threes

The Magic need to win tonight if they want to stay competitive in this series, seeing as Tatum is expected to be out. Caldwell-Pope knocked down two of four three-point attempts in Game 1, and Tatum’s absence will skew the defensive matchups and leave a weaker defender on Caldwell-Pope.

Although Boston has a terrific defense, Caldwell-Pope went over in two of their three matchups, excluding one during which he only played seven minutes. Orlando also doesn’t have many reliable backcourt options, if any at all, and somebody not named Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner is going to need to shoot the ball.

Davion Mitchell Over 10.5 Points

Mitchell carved out an important role for himself in the Miami Heat’s rotation, playing 34 minutes in Game 1 and an average of 36.5 across two Play-In Tournament games. He’s also been excellent at shooting the ball recently, averaging 16.3 points per game since the postseason began.

The Cavs want to play an up-tempo style of game, and Mitchell is both willing to drive the ball and pull up from three now that he’s in such a great rhythm. This is a game of numbers, and with his minutes and average shot attempts, he should have the volume needed to get over this line.

NBA Same-Game Parlay (+245) at FanDuel

-Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets (-3.5)

• Stephen Curry 20+ points: Played 40 minutes and scored 31 points in Game 1, and he went over in three straight and five of his last six games.

• Alperen Sengun under 4.5 assists: Had one assist in Game 1, and the Warriors have made a clear emphasis on taking away passing lanes whenever he has the ball.

• Amen Thompson under 13.5 points: Only scored eight points in Game 1 and will be limited if the Rockets can’t play in transition because of his poor pull-up shooting and offensive game in the half-court.

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