NBA Player Props and Best Bets: Davis Over, Young Under, and a Play-In Tournament SGP

The NBA Play-In Tournament will conclude on Friday, and I have five player prop picks for the final day before the full-fledged playoffs begin.

The Atlanta Hawks will welcome the Miami Heat to town in the early game for an Eastern Conference showdown. The Hawks went 2-0 at home against the Heat during the regular season, but they’re coming off of a loss, while Miami took down the Chicago Bulls on Wednesday.

The Dallas Mavericks will visit the Memphis Grizzlies in the late game as they look to right their topsy-turvy campaign and become the first 10 seed to make the playoffs. Ja Morant is dealing with an ankle injury, and Memphis has struggled against strong Western Conference opponents for months.

Here are my top five NBA player prop picks for the Play-In Tournament on Friday.

Odds for today's NBA prop bets are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Place a $5 wager at FanDuel Sportsbook and receive $250 in bonus bets if your bet wins.

Best NBA Prop Bets for Friday, April 18

Scotty Pippen Jr. Under 3.5 Rebounds (+128) at FanDuel

Pippen Jr. went over with five rebounds in Tuesday’s Play-In game against the Golden State Warriors, marking just the second time he went over in nine games. He was integral to the Memphis Grizzlies’ defensive game plan against Stephen Curry, but he could get played off the court due to his small size against a massive Mavericks front line.

Pippen Jr. went under in his only matchup with the Mavericks after the Luka Doncic trade that sent him to Los Angeles. He also has a history of going under this line and will likely lose minutes to taller players such as Santi Aldama or Vince Williams Jr. to match up with Dallas.

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Santi Aldama Over 9.5 Points (-125) at FanDuel

Following that logic, I expect Aldama to play a decent amount of minutes because of his size. He split the over/under at one game apiece but had 14 points in 27 minutes against the Warriors and should get to take lots of three-pointers since Dallas’ defensive matchups will likely be post players by trade.

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Andrew Wiggins Under 19.5 points (-128) at FanDuel

The one-time Finals champion with the Warriors scored 20 points in Wednesday’s Play-In win against the Chicago Bulls. However, he only shot 40 percent from the floor, and he’d gone under in four straight games before that, which leads me to believe there will be regression to the mean.

Even if Wiggins plays heavy minutes again, the Hawks are no worse on defense than the Bulls are. The Heat’s new swingman already played the Hawks three times wearing his new threads and went under in two of those, including a 16-point outing just three weeks ago on March 27.

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Trae Young Under 2.5 Threes (+154) at FanDuel

This could be the Hawks’ final game of the season, which means that Young and the other important players will be playing heavy minutes. However, Young’s efficiency dropped off a cliff in the postseason, and he just went 8-21 (38.1 percent) from the field and 1-5 (20 percent) from three in Tuesday’s Play-In loss to the Orlando Magic.

Young played the Heat in the 2021-22 playoffs and only made 1.4 threes per game on 18.4 percent shooting. Erik Spoelstra is a terrific head coach who will have a strong game plan in place, and Young’s short stature should become a real headache for a long and tall defensive lineup.

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Anthony Davis over 27.5 Points (-106) at FanDuel

Davis has a golden opportunity to win over part of the Mavericks fan base with another strong game and by helping Dallas become the first 10 seed to make the playoff bracket. He knows the Grizzlies well from their Play-In and playoff battles in the Western Conference and just scored 27 points in Wednesday’s win against the Sacramento Kings.

Memphis plays at a much faster pace than Sacramento and will create more scoring chances, leading to more possible points. They’ve been bad on defense recently and commit tons of fouls, which could mean Davis spends a lot of time at the free-throw line and gets easy points.

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NBA Same-Game Parlay (+402) at FanDuel

-Dallas Mavericks at Memphis Grizzlies (-6) 

• Ja Morant under 26.5 points: Had 22 points in 35 minutes on Tuesday and is dealing with the effect of an ankle injury that could leave him without some of his usual athleticism.

• P.J. Washington over 1.5 threes: Went over in two of his last three games, will play heavy minutes and could get lots of shot attempts due to Dallas’ size and the pressure that will put on Memphis’ defense.

• Desmond Bane over 4.5 assists: With Morant injured, I believe Bane will spend more time with the ball in his hands, and he averaged 5.3 assists per game.

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