As we cross into the halfway point of the work week, I have five of the best NBA player props that are available for Wednesday's action.
Jayson Tatum’s clutch three-pointer helped the Boston Celtics take down the New York Knicks in overtime, while the Milwaukee Bucks’ wild 24-point fourth-quarter rally against the Minnesota Timberwolves helped them nearly lock up the fifth seed in the Eastern Conference to the chagrin of the surging Detroit Pistons.
Wednesday’s matchups are headlined by Luka Doncic’s return to Dallas, the Denver Nuggets visiting the Sacramento Kings in the first game of the post-Mike Malone era, and more exciting squabbles.
Here are my top five NBA player props and a same-game parlay for Wednesday.
Additionally, be sure to check out our prediction for the Lakers vs Mavericks matchup.
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Banchero has been on a torrid scoring stretch over the last month and change but hasn’t been a consistent distributor, going under this line in three of his last four and seven of his last 10 games. With that said, the context of tonight’s matchup with the Boston Celtics provides him with a strong opportunity to go over his line.
The Celtics have nothing left to play for and could feasibly rest their best players on the second night of a back-to-back. They also just played the New York Knicks, a contender in the East, in an overtime win, and will be tired and/or due for an emotional letdown. The bottom line is that I don’t expect anywhere close to Boston’s best tonight, and that is a major plus for Banchero.
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Let’s be honest, this game is set up for Doncic to explode. He was questionably ejected from last night’s game against the Oklahoma City Thunder, one that the Los Angeles Lakers led in the fourth quarter when he was ejected and ended up losing, and he is now headed back to Dallas for the first time as a member of the purple and gold.
Doncic is spiteful by his own admission and will want to make an example out of the Mavericks. He only went over this line once in his last six games but had a stretch in March during which he went over in six of 12 games, and he’s been much more efficient from three recently.
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The Phoenix Suns’ catastrophic season is over as they cannot mathematically qualify for the Play-In Tournament. Booker recently tried to play hero ball and score a ton of points while sacrificing his playmaking responsibilities, and while he averaged 33 points over his last five games, he went under his assist line in four of his last six.
The Suns are about to face the Thunder, who allowed the fourth-fewest assists per game and will be encouraged by their win last night. Booker also has nothing left to play for and has been rumored to even want a trade out of town this summer, so I don’t expect him to show up ready to playmake for his teammates.
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Bridges is one of the very few credible offensive threats in the Charlotte Hornets’ rotation with all of the injuries they suffered (and their uninspiring roster). He went under in three straight games but also went over in seven of eight immediately before that, and this is a fairly low line to try to clear.
The Hornets are taking on the Toronto Raptors, who have done a solid job limiting their opponents’ assists recently but are still not a strong defensive team. Bridges had six assists when these teams played on March 28 and doesn’t have much work to do to get over this line.
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Ellis is part of a Kings crew that is going to see the Nuggets in their first game without coach Malone. One of the reasons he was fired was supposedly Nikola Jokic’s frustration with the team’s lack of defense, and I think it’s reasonable to see an improved defensive effort with the playoffs just around the corner.
Even without a defensive jolt, Ellis went under in five of his last six games and only scored two points in 37 minutes in his last game against the Detroit Pistons. He went over in two of three meetings with Denver, but if they can’t fix their defense after the Kings’ emotional letdown of securing a Play-In spot, then they’re flat-out doomed.
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-San Antonio Spurs at Golden State Warriors (-15.5)
Brandin Podziemski 2+ threes: Went over this line in four straight and in nine of his last 11 games, while the Spurs are 24th in made threes allowed per game.
Draymond Green under 5.5 assists: Went under in four straight and will have limited opportunities to get to the over if the Warriors blow the Spurs out as expected.
Chris Paul under 1.5 threes: Went under in three straight and four of last five, while the Warriors ranked 11th in made threes allowed per game.
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