Get ready for another night of “Wow, did you see that?” and “No he didn’t!” in the NBA on Wednesday night. Better yet, here are my top five NBA player prop bets to target for Hump Day.
Nikola Jokic, Nikola Jokic, Nikola Jokic. The Denver Nuggets’ big man went for 61 points, 10 rebounds, and 10 assists in a loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Devin Booker’s 39 points and 11 assists could only help the Phoenix Suns lose by 10 points to the Milwaukee Bucks.
Wednesday’s matchups include a recent rivalry between the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat, the Oklahoma City Thunder hosting the Detroit Pistons, and plenty more.
Here are my five favorite NBA player prop bets for Wednesday.
Additionally, be sure to check out our prediction for the Knicks vs. Cavaliers matchup.
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Paul finally broke his lengthy streak of going under this line on Tuesday as he dished out seven helpers against the stingy defense of the Orlando Magic. But even though he’s 39 years old and on the second night of a road back-to-back, he’s somehow in a favorable position in this matchup.
The Nuggets are coming off a brutal double-overtime home loss to the Timberwolves despite Jokic’s career-defining performance. Paul went over both times he met this defense, going for eight and 11 assists, and the Nuggets are tired and already allowed the second-most assists per game.
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Missi went over this line in four straight games, yet there is substantial juice on him going under against the Los Angeles Clippers on Wednesday. Why’s that? His name is Ivica Zubac, and it’s because he’s been arguably the most overlooked player in the NBA during the 2024-25 regular season.
Big Zu averaged 12.6 rebounds per game, the fourth-highest mark in the league, and is a major reason why the Clippers allowed the third-fewest rebounds per game. Missi also went under with eight rebounds the last time he faced the Clippers on March 12, and I believe he will do the same.
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Hardaway Jr. exploded for 20 points in his last outing and 32 the time before that, but he still only averaged 11.6 points per game in March. He also went under this line in four of six games just before that and rarely cracks 30 minutes per night, which means he doesn’t get a ton of scoring opportunities.
The Oklahoma City Thunder have the best defense in the NBA bar none and will make life tough for Hardaway Jr. He scored 11 points and barely crept over the last time these teams played, but he’s also shot the ball much worse on the road and will have to play in OKC on Wednesday.
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Sexton sat out of his team’s last game with an issue in his pelvis. He went over this line in back-to-back games and, while one of them was against the same Houston Rockets defense he’s about to face, it’s unlikely that he will find the same level of success against an elite defensive unit.
The Rockets rank fifth in points allowed per game, and Sexton split the over/under on this line at six apiece in March. Isaiah Collier and Keyonte George are both available, so Sexton won’t have a monopoly of the ball and should have a tough time finding his way to the over.
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Poole and the Washington Wizards are preparing to face the Sacramento Kings, who ranked 19th in points and 27th in made threes allowed per game over the last month of action. Poole himself also went over in six of his last seven games and had 35 points against the Miami Heat in his last outing.
The Kings are going nowhere fast and are at risk of missing the Play-In Tournament if they succumb to the Phoenix Suns. Poole and the Wizards have quietly looked like a much improved basketball team over the last couple of months, and he’s shot the ball efficiently and with confidence.
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