As March Madness is put on pause until Thursday, I am here to share my top five NBA player prop bets for Monday night.
My picks were hot last week, just like Andrew Wiggins and CJ McCollum were hot on Sunday as they dropped 40 and 42 points. Jamal Murray also put up 39 points and seven assists as the Denver Nuggets beat the Houston Rockets, who they’re now one game behind for second place in the Western Conference.
Monday’s schedule features nationally televised games between the Los Angeles Lakers and Orlando Magic and the Milwaukee Bucks and the Phoenix Suns.
Here are my favorite NBA player prop bets for Monday.
Additionally, be sure to check out our prediction for the Bucks vs. Suns matchup.
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Ant Man is still taking and making a bunch of threes per game and is at 4.0 makes per game on 40 percent long-range shooting. He basically flip-flopped between over and under this line in every game this month, but he went 1-11 from three in a matchup with the Indiana Pacers, who he will face tonight, when they met last Monday.
The Pacers held opponents to 33.5 percent three-point shooting over the last 30 days, the second-lowest mark in the league during that time. Even better, they allowed the fewest threes per game over the last month and get to play Monday’s game in their home arena, where they are 23-9.
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Finney-Smith got to start despite Rui Hachimura returning to the lineup for Saturday’s blowout loss to the Chicago Bulls. He went 0-3 from three in 21 minutes after a few strong games shooting the ball, but he still shot 33.3 percent from three for the month and should have fewer shooting opportunities with Hachimura back in the rotation.
The Orlando Magic allowed the fewest three-pointers per game despite allowing the sixth-highest percentage, which is reflective of their commitment to running their opponents off of the perimeter. Finney-Smith went over in six of his last nine games, but the reasons I laid out above are why I like him to go under and cash this NBA player prop bet for Monday.
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Champagnie averaged 7.7 points and 8.5 points in 24.2 minutes per game in March. He went under in 12 of his last 16 games, isn’t playing a ton of minutes, and doesn’t have extraordinary shooting splits, all of which makes me confident that he will cash his under.
The Washington Wizards are about to take on the Toronto Raptors, who quietly rose to 12th in points allowed per game over the last month. Champagnie also played them twice recently, on March 8 and 10, going for zero points in four minutes and six points in 24 minutes in those instances.
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Huerter is one of the streakiest players in the league. He’d gone over in three straight games until Saturday’s contest with the Los Angeles Lakers, during which he went 0-4 from three-point land to bring his three-point percentage to 32.9 percent in March and 35.7 percent since he was traded to the Chicago Bulls.
The Denver Nuggets struggle to defend the three-point line and are 20th in three-point makes allowed per game over the last 30 days. However, Huerter went under this line in his last four matchups with the Nuggets (once this year, three times last year) and split the over/under at four apiece despite being “hot” recently.
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Monk, now a starting point guard for the Sacramento Kings, only grabbed one measly rebound in his last game against the Chicago Bulls. However, he went over in three of four games just before that and has shown more interest in crashing the glass now that he is the primary initiator for the offense.
Monk averaged 33.9 minutes per game in March and will need to be active and attentive with the Boston Celtics coming into town. As good as Boston is on the boards, it’s only 16th in rebounds allowed to opposing point guards, and Domantas Sabonis is questionable with an ankle injury.
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-Milwaukee Bucks vs. Phoenix Suns (-3)
Gary Trent Jr. under 2.5 rebounds: Went under in seven of last nine games, and the Suns allowed the second-fewest rebounds per game over the last 30 days.
Devin Booker 25+ points: Went over in two of last three, and Kevin Durant finds it tough against long, physical wings and should give more looks to Booker.
Kyle Kuzma 1+ three: Made at least one three in 13 of his last 17 games, while the Suns allowed the fifth-most threes per game over the last month.
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