NBA Player Props and Best Bets: Lillard, LaMelo Unders and Late-Night NBA SGP

I have five NBA player props for Thursday that, even amid the allure of March Madness, need to be seen before the day’s games begin.

Cade Cunningham drilled a game-winning three-pointer to send the Miami Heat’s losing streak to nine games last night, while Sandro Mamukelshvili set an NBA record for points scored in less than 20 minutes of game time with 34. Yes, you read that correctly.

Thursday’s abbreviated slate contains five matchups from coast-to-coast, starting with a nationally-televised game between the Indiana Pacers and Brooklyn Nets and closing with the Los Angeles Lakers at home against the Milwaukee Bucks.

Here are my five favorite NBA prop bets for Thursday.

Additionally, be sure to check out our prediction for the Bulls vs. Kings matchup.

Odds for today's NBA prop bets are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Place a $5 wager at FanDuel Sportsbook and receive $200 in bonus bets if your bet wins.

Best NBA Prop Bets for Thursday, March 20

Damian Lillard Under 22.5 Points (-130) at FanDuel

Lillard failed to crack 20 points in consecutive games and went under in five of his last six outings, including a game in which he scored 22 points against this same Lakers team one week ago. The Lakers, meanwhile, allowed the third-fewest points per game in the league over the last month of action.

A shorthanded LA was embarrassed on the road in Milwaukee despite Luka Doncic’s 45 points, and they’ll be eager to get vengeance back in their arena. Lillard has been somewhat passive shooting the ball recently and only made 34.9 percent of his three-point attempts in March, which puts him on track to go under.

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LaMelo Ball Under 6.5 Assists (+110) at FanDuel

Ball handed out five helpers in his last game, although he went over in four straight games just before that. Injuries have prevented him from facing the New York Knicks at any previous point in the season, so there’s no recent matchup history to lean back on when evaluating this NBA player prop.

What is known and supported by the data is that the Knicks allowed the ninth-fewest assists per game over the last month and the 10th-fewest assists per game for the season overall. Miles Bridges is day-to-day, and Brandon Miller is still out, so it will be hard for Ball to get consistent contributions from his teammates.

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Tyrese Haliburton Over 17.5 Points (-136) at FanDuel

I took lots of Haliburton picks recently, although it feels like very few of them had any action since he’s missed so many games. That aside, Haliburton dropped 24 points in his last outing and went over in eight of his last 11 games while shooting better than 41 percent from three for three straight months.

The Brooklyn Nets have played above-average defense in recent weeks and are 13th in points allowed per game to opposing point guards. However, Haliburton dropped 23 points on 4-7 three-point shooting the last time he faced them on January 6 and is 1-1 on the over/under.

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Nikola Vucevic Over 1.5 Threes (+110) at FanDuel

Now an unquestioned top-two scoring option in the Chicago Bulls’ offense sans DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine, Vucevic drilled four threes in his last game and went over in five of his last seven games. He also shot 47.6 percent from deep in March and hit 39.4 percent of his three-point attempts overall.

The Bulls are going to take on the Sacramento Kings, who allowed the highest three-point percentage for the year (38.3) and over the last month of play (41.1). He only made one three when he played the Kings on Jan. 12, but their terrible defense combined with his hot hand give us the confidence to take his over.

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Brandin Podziemski Under 3.5 Assists (-138) at FanDuel

Podziemski returned to the lineup on Tuesday after a 12-day hiatus, going for 17 points, seven rebounds, and one assist. He averaged 3.4 assists per game and went under in six of his last eight games while oscillating between about 20-32 minutes per game, with a couple of outliers.

The Golden State Warriors are about to take on the Toronto Raptors who, despite having a terrible defense, allowed the sixth-fewest assists per game over the last month of action. Podziemski won’t have to worry about playmaking with Steph Curry, Jimmy Butler, and Draymond Green on the floor, and he should help go under on this NBA player prop pick.

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NBA Same-Game Parlay (+312) at FanDuel

-Chicago Bulls at Sacramento Kings (-7)

• Malik Monk under 2.5 threes: Alternated back and forth between overs and unders but is playing a defense that led the league in three-point percentage allowed (32.8) over the last 30 days.

• Jonas Valanciunas 10+ rebounds: He went over in five of his last eight games, while the Bulls allowed the second-most rebounds per game.

• Coby White 4+ assists: White hit or exceeded this number in five straight games and is facing a Kings defense that ranked 20th in assists allowed per game.

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