NBA Player Props and Best Bets: Big Nights for Jokic and Hart, Plus a Special SGP

I went 4-1 on my NBA prop bets shared right here at WSN yesterday, and I’ve got five more to (hopefully) turn Friday into the best day of the week.

The LeBron James-Luka Doncic shone once again in a comeback overtime win against the New York Knicks despite Jalen Brunson’s 39 points and 10 assists, while Steph Curry dropped 40 points to improve the Golden State Warriors to 10-1 with Jimmy Butler on the floor. 

Friday’s game schedule includes several high-profile matchups between the game’s best players and playoff hopefuls, whether that be the Denver Nuggets hosting the Phoenix Suns or the Los Angeles Clippers welcoming the Knicks to their side of town.

Here are my best NBA player prop picks for Friday.

Additionally, be sure to check out our prediction for the Phoenix Suns vs. Denver Nuggets matchup.

Odds for today's NBA prop bets are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Place a $5 wager at FanDuel Sportsbook and receive $150 in bonus bets if your bet wins.

Best NBA Prop Bets for Friday, March 7

Donovan Mitchell Under 23.5 Points (-122) at FanDuel

The Cleveland Cavaliers are checks notes 17-point favorites against the Charlotte Hornets tonight! The Cavs won 12 games in a row, have the best record in the NBA, and are playing at such a high level that it would almost be more of a shock if they didn’t blow out the Hornets than if they did.

Blowouts lead to fewer minutes and decreased intensity from starting players, which is a major reason we’re fading Mitchell here. He also scored 18 and 19 points on exactly 50 percent shooting in both matchups with the Hornets, giving credence to our theory that he won’t bring his best stuff into this matchup.

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Bam Adebayo Under 19.5 Points (-112) at FanDuel

Adebayo has been excellent as of late and just went for 34 points, 12 rebounds, and five assists against the Cavs. Despite his red-hot scoring streak, he still went under this line in four of his last eight games, and a 50 percent hit rate on “overs” amid a hot streak means he will inevitably trend under once he cools off.

The Minnesota Timberwolves allowed the fifth-fewest points per game and have Rudy Gobert back in their lineup after an extended absence. Adebayo also scored nine points on 3-11 (27.3 percent) shooting when they matched up earlier in the season in Minnesota.

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Isaiah Joe Over 16.5 Points (-114) at FanDuel

The Oklahoma City Thunder are going to be without Isaiah Hartenstein, Lu Dort, Cason Wallace, Jalen Williams, and Shai-Gilgeous Alexander, while Chet Holmgren is questionable. That means there will be tons of minutes for guys further down the rotation, and Joe could easily see 40 minutes tonight. 

Joe scored 12, 17, and 31 points in games in which he played at least 30 minutes this season. He averaged 6.0 three-point attempts in just 20.6 minutes per game, which means he could and should take double-digit threes as a 40 percent three-point shooter. All of that results in him having more than enough opportunities to get over this line.

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Nikola Jokic Over 10.5 Assists (-114) at FanDuel

Nobody needs a lesson on how great of a passer the three-time NBA MVP is, so we’ll just say that he gets to go against a Phoenix Suns team that looks to have totally given up on defense. We’re also looking at a regression to the mean here, as Jokic, against all odds, recorded nine or fewer assists in three games against the Suns.

Don’t let that trend fool you, Phoenix has a glaring weakness on the interior and will need to send multiple bodies at Jokic, which will open up a plethora of passing lanes. Jokic also averaged 10.4 assists per game and had games of 15 and 19 assists over the last two weeks.

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Josh Hart 8+ Assists (+250) at FanDuel

It seems incredibly unlikely that Jalen Brunson will be available for tonight’s game after he injured his ankle in overtime last night, which means that Hart should be the Knicks’ primary initiator tonight. His regular assists line is over/under 5.5, but we’re confident he can push beyond that.

Hart’s style of relentlessly driving downhill opens up kick-outs and dump-offs to his teammates. The Los Angeles Clippers are a great defensive team, yet they’ve been about league-average in assists allowed per game over their last 10. Hart also had six and nine assists in two of his last six games with Brunson still on the floor, and he’s proven he can hit this number.

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NBA Same-Game Parlay (+326) at FanDuel

-San Antonio Spurs @ Sacramento Kings (-6)

• De’Aaron Fox 20+ points: One of the league’s best scorers who went over in eight of 13 with the Spurs and is facing his former team for the first time since they traded him.

• Stephon Castle 4+ rebounds: Went over in four of his last five and has more rebounding opportunities without Victor Wembanyama on the floor.

• DeMar DeRozan under 26.5 points: Went under in nine of 12 and in two of three matchups with the Spurs.