NBA Player Props and Best Bets: Fading the Superstars, Plus a Jokic Parlay

Your big weekend plans can wait, because I’ve got the best NBA player props for the Friday slate. 

Steph Curry erupted for 56 points in a road win over the Orlando Magic, while the Phoenix Suns fell to five games below .500 with a loss to the 16-43 New Orleans Pelicans.

I had another winning day with my NBA prop picks and crushed a +315 same-game parlay in the Los Angeles Lakers-Minnesota Timberwolves matchup as the purple and gold moved to 16-4 over their last 20 games.

Let’s jump into my best NBA prop bets for Friday.

Additionally, be sure to check out our prediction for the Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Boston Celtics matchup.

Best NBA Prop Bets for Friday, February 28

Scottie Barnes Under 5.5 Assists

Barnes averaged a career-high 6.2 rebounds per game, although that number fell to 5.3 in February, and he went under this line in eight of his last 12 games. He also went under in his only matchup with the Chicago Bulls, registering five assists on Jan. 31.

The Bulls allowed the second-most assists per game, but they managed to hold Barnes under in their only previous matchup, and the Toronto Raptors are only 21st in assists per game over their last 10 outings. The Raptors were also 25th in field goal percentage during that stretch, which means that assists will be even harder to come by.

Ja Morant Under 23.5 Points

Morant’s scoring average has plummeted to 20.8 points per game, and he went under this line in four of his last six games while averaging 22.3 points per game in February. He scored just 10 points on 38.5 percent shooting his only time playing the New York Knicks this season, which was almost exactly one month ago.

The Knicks are 14th in points allowed per game, and most of their defensive ineptitude occurs beyond the three-point line where they allowed the most made threes per game. Morant is not a prolific long-range shooter and won’t be able to capitalize on this weakness, which leads us to believe he’ll go under his line.

Kawhi Leonard Under 5.5 Rebounds

The Los Angeles Clippers took the ball out of Leonard’s hands for the first time and have made him somewhat of a role player as he averaged 16.9 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 2.8 assists per game. He went under this line in five of his last six outings, although he had eight rebounds against the Bulls in his last outing.

Leonard and company are preparing for an inner-city showdown with the Lakers, who allowed the fewest rebounds per game over their last 15. Leonard had one and six rebounds in two games against the Lakers, and with the way that LeBron James and Luka Doncic have controlled the glass from the wing, there isn’t much room for Leonard to go over.

Dyson Daniels Under 14.5 Points

Daniels is in contention for the Most Improved Player award, having raised his scoring average from 5.8 points last season to 14 points per game this time around. He’s had a great month, going over in seven of 11 games and averaging 16.5 points on 52.4 percent shooting, but that should come to an end tonight.

The Oklahoma City Thunder have the best defense in basketball and allowed the second-fewest points per game. They unsurprisingly held Daniels to seven points on 27.3 percent shooting when they met near the start of the year, and his 52.4 percent three-point shooting in February is beyond unsustainable.

Jaylen Brown Under 21.5 Points

Friday’s showdown between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Boston Celtics will be the final installment of what could be a future Eastern Conference Final preview. Brown enters the matchup having scored 24 points in his last two games but after struggling against this opponent.

The Cavs held the reigning Finals MVP to 16 and 17 points, and their recent acquisition of De’Andre Hunter gives them more size and athleticism on the wing to throw at him. Cleveland wants to make a statement as it trails in the season series 1-2, and I think they’ll get the best of Brown.

NBA Same-Game Parlay (+323) at FanDuel

Denver Nuggets @ Detroit Pistons (-1.5)

• Nikola Jokic 10+ rebounds: He went over this line in four of his last five and in eight of his last 11 games, including the 14 he had last night.

• Jalen Duren under 10.5 rebounds: Duren is a terrific rebounder and averaged 12.0 rebounds in February, but his aggressiveness often puts him in foul trouble, and he only had seven rebounds in his previous meeting with Denver.

• Michael Porter Jr. under 2.5 threes: He’s not shooting the ball well lately, going 4-22 (18.2 percent) in his last four games, and his three-point percentage fell from 43.9 at home to 36.3 on the road.

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