NBA Player Props and Best Bets for February 21: De’Aaron Fox to Flourish Without Wemby?

It’s Friday, and there’s no better way to start the weekend than with our best NBA betting picks.

LeBron James dropped 40 points in Luka Doncic’s absence to lead the Los Angeles Lakers to a win over the Portland Trail Blazers, while De’Aaron Fox led the San Antonio Spurs past the Phoenix Suns just hours after learning Victor Wembanyama will be out for the year with a blood clot in his shoulder.

Here are our best NBA prop bets for Friday.

Best NBA Prop Bets for Friday, February 21

Jaden McDaniels Under 6.5 Rebounds

McDaniels is having a career year as a rebounder but still averaged 5.6 rebounds per game for the Minnesota Timberwolves. He went under this line in two of his last three games after a strong start to the month and went under in two of three matchups with the Houston Rockets, recording five, five, and eight rebounds in those contests.

The Rockets allowed the fourth-fewest rebounds per game since the start of the new year and the eighth-fewest per game for the season as a whole. Both teams will be fresh since they haven't played in eight days, but since hustle is more ingrained in Houston’s DNA, we expect them to be on top of their game on the glass.

Brandin Podziemski Under 12.5 Points

The 21-year-old Podziemski went under this line in four of seven games in February leading into the All-Star break. He dropped down a spot in the pecking order when Jimmy Butler arrived and is still having a poor year shooting the ball, going 27.8 percent from three in February and 32 percent for the year.

The Sacramento Kings are not a strong defensive team, although there is no precedent for Podziemski facing their defense this season. He’s shooting just 23.5 percent from three on the road this season and should be out of rhythm after more than a week off.

Mikal Bridges Under 1.5 Threes

Bridges did not make two or more threes in five straight games and is only shooting 30.8 percent from three so far this month. He also played 44 minutes last night in an overtime win against the Chicago Bulls and will now need to be the primary defender against the league-best offense of the Cleveland Cavaliers on the road in the second night of a back-to-back.

Bridges only attempted 3.7 threes per game this month and went 1-5 from range last night. The Cavaliers are 19th in three-point percentage allowed but also 10th in three-pointers allowed per game, and Bridges’ defensive responsibilities should drain the energy from his legs and limit his shooting effectiveness.

De’Aaron Fox Over 24.5 Points

No Victor Wembanyama means it’s Fox’s time to shine (get well soon, Wemby). Fox put up 26 points in a surprising win over the Phoenix Suns last night and went over in two of his last three games as he continues to grow more comfortable with his new team.

The Detroit Pistons are a league-average 15th in points allowed per game, and Fox scored 26 points when he faced them as a member of the Kings earlier this season. San Antonio is fairly limited with its scoring options, and Fox should get to take a ton of shots without Wemby in the lineup.

Jalen Duren Over 12.5 Points

Speaking of the Pistons, Jalen Duren only averaged 10.8 points per game but went over this line in seven of his last nine games. Centers normally struggle against the Spurs, but without Wemby in the lineup, Duren should have relatively free control of the interior. 

Bismack Biyombo was the only recognized center to get minutes for the Spurs last night, and the team ranks 18th in points allowed per game overall. Cade Cunningham is a willing passer, and we expect him to find Duren with much more space than anyone is accustomed to whenever they face the Spurs.

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