NBA Finals Game Five Player Props for Monday, June 17

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The Boston Celtics return to their homecourt for a chance to win the NBA Finals in front of their home crowd after an embarrassing 38-point loss to the Dallas Mavericks in Game Four, setting the series at 3-1 in Boston’s favor.

Here are our favorite NBA player prop picks for Game Five of the NBA Finals on Monday.

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Best NBA Prop Bets for Monday, June 17

Al Horford Over 6.5 Rebounds (-122) at FanDuel

“Big Al” holds the unfortunate title of the player with the second-most playoff appearances without a championship ring in NBA history. He’s just one win away from removing himself from that list and potentially solidifying a Hall of Fame, 17-year career.

Horford went under this line in both Games Three and Four but still hit the over in 10 of 18 playoff games overall. With Kristaps Porzingis unlikely to play for the remainder of the postseason, Horford is going to have a large role on the glass and will need to pull down a decent amount of rebounds for his team to finally win the Finals.

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Jayson Tatum Under 2.5 Threes (+104) at FanDuel

Tatum can’t seem to escape his historic shooting woes in the Finals and also in the playoffs overall. He went 1-4 from beyond the arc in Game Four and is shooting 29 percent from three in the NBA Finals, which is exactly what he shot for the playoffs overall. That’s despite going 37.6 percent from three during the regular season.

Tatum went under this line in two of four Finals games but in 13 of 18 playoff matchups. The Mavericks found success in Game Four by forcing the Celtics’ starting lineup into an inefficient shooting night (31.8 percent from three) and will know that their path to victory comes from an intense focus on perimeter defense.

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Derrick Jones Jr. Over 5.5 Points (-120) at FanDuel

The case of Jones Jr.’s minutes is a curious one. He played 30.5 minutes per game during the first two games of the Finals and 33 during the Western Conference Finals, only to average 16.5 in Games Three and Four. He may have played more in Game Four had the Mavs not run away with the game, but he’s still a bit of a question mark heading into Game Five.

Despite the concerns, we like Jones to get over his points total. Dallas is slowly finding a way to get more three-point shots, and Jones has done solid work as a driver in recent games (highlighted by an 11-point night in Game Two). We expect to see Jones hit the over for just the second time in the series as long as he plays at least 20 minutes.

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Dereck Lively II Under 8.5 Rebounds (-113) at FanDuel

Lively II broke out of his shell with a couple of extremely impressive games in his two most recent outings, averaging 11 points and 12.5 rebounds in just 26 minutes. The young rookie is continuing to show his worth and massive potential for the future, even nailing a corner three in Game Four.

All that said, we are fading Lively in Game Five simply because we expect to see Joe Mazzulla make adjustments to limit his presence. He also grabbed five and seven rebounds in the first two games (both in Boston) and could understandably struggle on the road against a desperate Celtics team.

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Daniel Gafford Over 6.5 Points (+100) at FanDuel

Gafford played just 15.8 minutes per game in the Finals, yet he averaged 8.5 points and went over in three of four games. His physicality and athleticism near the basket have been tough for the Celtics to account for, especially without Porzingis in the lineup and considering how willing the Celtics are to switch smaller defenders onto him.

Even though we can’t trust Gafford to play a lot of minutes (just 10 in Game Four), we trust him to aggressively look for his shot when he is on the court and to be efficient with his looks. Boston doesn’t want to play any of its backup big men any serious minutes, so we’ll trust Gafford to find a few easy baskets and to go over.

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