NBA Player Props and Best Bets for Tuesday, April 16

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The NBA Play-In Tournament begins on Tuesday with two matchups in the Western Conference. 

Stephen Curry scored 50 points the last time he was in an elimination game against the Sacramento Kings, who will be without Malik Monk and Kevin Huerter, while the Los Angeles Lakers are looking to extend their season-series lead against the New Orleans Pelicans to 4-1 in what is their most important game of the season.

Here are our favorite NBA player prop picks for Tuesday.

Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook. Use our FanDuel promo code for $150 in bonus bets.

LeBron James Over 9.5 Assists (+116) at FanDuel

Playoff LeBron is in the building. At 39 years old, he dished out 17 assists in his regular-season finale (also against the New Orleans Pelicans) and recorded double-digit assists in five of his final 10 games. He also crossed over 9.5 assists in his last two meetings with the Pelicans and is going to spend a lot of time with the ball in his hands in a do-or-die scenario.

The Pelicans are extremely well-balanced and are a tough matchup for many teams, but the Lakers are not one of them. They beat them in three of four meetings, including in the In-Season Tournament Semifinal, and demolished them in the final game of the year. Expect LeBron’s fingerprints to be all over a Lakers win.

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Austin Reaves Over 3.5 Rebounds (-106) at FanDuel

Reaves might not have a max contract or a Nike shoe deal, but he is a big-game player. He earned the trust of his star teammates during last year’s series against the Memphis Grizzlies and averaged 4.4 boards during that playoff run, and he should see increased minutes as the rotation shortens. 

Although Reaves only went over this line once in his last five games, he hit the over in eight of nine just before that (with standout performances of 14 and 13 rebounds). We don’t have to worry about him not being prepared for the moment or being played off of the court, which is why we trust him to cash the over.

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Trey Murphy III Over 2.5 Threes (-128) at FanDuel

Murphy has the type of size on the perimeter that is difficult for the Lakers to defend against. He buried three of six triples in the Pels’ last meeting with the purple and gold and went over this line in five straight games while making 3.8 threes per game on 42.3 percent shooting in April.

The Lakers allowed the third-highest three-point percentage (38.1 percent) since the All-Star break, which puts them at even greater risk of a strong night from the sharp-shooting Murphy. LA’s defensive resources will also go toward mostly slowing down Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, and C.J. McCollum, which should give Murphy enough space to get his shots off.

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De’Aaron Fox Over 29.5 Points (-104) at FanDuel

There’s no guarantee that the short-handed Sacramento Kings will take down the Golden State Warriors, but it’s a near-guarantee that Fox will go down swinging. The reigning Clutch Player of the Year scored 29, 29, and 39 points in his previous matchups with the Warriors and should take even more shots without Monk and Huerter in the lineup.

Fox had a great start to his series against the Warriors last year before he broke his finger and lost his shooting touch. There’s too much on the line for him not to take a ton of shots, and that type of volume makes him very likely to get over this total regardless of the final score.

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Klay Thompson Under 3.5 Rebounds (-111) at FanDuel

At his best, Thompson was a devastating three-point sniper who could lock down most perimeter players in the NBA. He doesn’t do a whole lot aside from snipe three-pointers and take mid-range pull-ups these days, a development that can be reflected by his rebounding total.

The four-time league champion only went over this line twice in his last nine games-to put that in perspective, he had the same number of games with zero rebounds that he did more than 3.5. The Warriors also have plenty of other players who can do the dirty work inside against the league’s leading rebounder in Domantas Sabonis, and it’s unlikely Klay will finish this game with a ton of boards.

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