NBA Player Props and Best Bets for Thursday, April 4

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Malachi Flynn became the first player in NBA history to score 50 points off the bench, though that wasn’t enough as the Detroit Pistons still fell to the Atlanta Hawks, while the Milwaukee Bucks dropped a second consecutive game against inferior competition in a 111-101 loss to the Memphis Grizzlies, jeopardizing their spot as the second seed in the Eastern Conference.

Here are our favorite NBA player prop picks for Thursday.

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Clint Capela Under 10.5 Rebounds (-106) at FanDuel

“Capela had 16 rebounds last night; did you even watch the game? How could you possibly take his under?” Yes, it might sound a bit unconventional, but allow us to explain why we believe the Atlanta Hawks’ big man is going to finish under his rebounding total against the Dallas Mavericks.

Dallas is an isolation-heavy team with two players, Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, who are as good as any at hunting and exploiting mismatches—that makes him a liability to be subbed out of the game at a moment’s notice if he continuously finds himself at the mercy of Dallas’ guards. Capela averaged less than 24 minutes in his last six games against Dallas, a number that could be even lower on Thursday since Dereck Lively II is injured and the Mavs will downsize their lineup, meaning he’ll have fewer chances to beat his total.

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Jalen Brunson Over 28.5 Points (-118) at FanDuel

Sometimes, the big dog just has to put his foot down and say that enough is enough—even if that big dog is a 6-foot-2 pitbull (that probably isn’t even 6-foot-2). Brunson’s New York Knicks lost three straight games, two heartbreakers and one hard-fought battle against the Miami Heat, yet he’s been utterly brilliant as of late.

The 27-year-old only scored 20 points on Tuesday but had 30 and 61 in the two preceding games. The Sacramento Kings quietly climbed to fifth in defensive rating over the last 15 games, but Brunson can score against any team and had 42 on 60.7 percent shooting when the teams met in California on March 16.

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Terry Rozier Over 2.5 Threes (+126) at FanDuel

At long last, it seems as if the Terry Rozier that the Heat traded for has arrived. The 30-year-old Louisville product scorched the Knicks for 34 points on 8-11 three-point shooting on Tuesday and made at least five threes in three straight games and in six of his last eight outings.

Miami is facing a Philadelphia 76ers team that struggled for months without Joel Embiid and still didn’t look great in his return to the lineup on Tuesday. The Sixers also allowed opponents to shoot 37.1 percent from beyond the arc over the last 10 games, just the 22nd-best mark during that stretch.

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Jalen Green Over 26.5 Points (-115) at FanDuel

The best part about basketball is that all of the off-court chatter can only be settled in one place, and if anyone needs a reminder of that, tune into the Golden State Warriors-Houston Rockets matchup on Thursday. The Rockets are three games behind the Dubs for the final spot in the Play-In Tournament and both teams are hot, which is why they’ve thrown shots at one another for the past few weeks.

Green only averaged 20 points per game for the year as a whole but just finished averaging 27.7 for the month of March and put up 26 against the Minnesota Timberwolves’ league-leading defense his last time out. Golden State played great defense in recent weeks but is getting an angry and confident Green.

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Nikola Jokic Over 12.5 Rebounds (-136) at FanDuel

One of the biggest impediments in the Los Angeles Clippers’ quest for success over the past few years was their lack of production and depth on the interior. No team in that situation wants to take on Nikola Jokic, who just so happened to grab 16 boards in his last game and 18 before that, and the Western Conference-leading Denver Nuggets.

Jokic grabbed 15 and 16 boards in two meetings with the Clippers earlier this year and has been asked to be even better than his usual MVP self in the absence of the injured Jamal Murray. Expect him to take over against a Clippers squad that ranks 22nd in rebound rate over the last 10 games.

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