NBA Player Props and Best Bets for Monday, April 1

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LeBron James went 9-10 from beyond the arc en route to 40 points in the Los Angeles Lakers’ win against the Brooklyn Nets, while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s last-second shot helped the Oklahoma City Thunder sneak past the New York Knicks 113-112. 

Here are our favorite NBA player prop picks for Monday.

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Aaron Nesmith Under 4.5 Rebounds (-140) at DraftKings Sportsbook

The Indiana Pacers have flipped a new leaf. The team allowed the 12th-fewest points per 100 possessions over its last 10 games and has become significantly better at generating multiple defensive stops, whereas they were one of the worst teams in the league on defense earlier in the year.

Despite those improvements and the innate relationship to more rebounds, they still only ranked 25th in rebound rate during that same 10-game span. Nesmith also hit the over on this line just one time in his last nine games and grabbed four boards the one time he squared off with the Brooklyn Nets earlier in the campaign.

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Paolo Banchero 8+ Rebounds (+115) at DraftKings Sportsbook

As we hinted at above, better defense leads to more rebounds. The Orlando Magic are second in defensive rating over the last 10 games, allowing just 104.9 points per 100 possessions, while the Portland Trail Blazers rank 28th in offensive rating during that same span (1-4.5 points per 100 possessions). 

The Magic have been one of the best rebounding teams in the league all year and are about to take on the squad with the worst true shooting percentage in basketball. Banchero grabbed at least eight rebounds in four of his last five games and has a clear path to the over given the matchup—only Deandre Ayton, who averages 11 boards per game, stands in his way.

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Brandon Miller Over 2.5 Threes (-125) at DraftKings Sportsbook

The 21-year-old Miller is already the most reliable player on the Charlotte Hornets—at least when LaMelo Ball doesn’t play. He sank five of 13 three-pointers against the Los Angeles Clippers on Sunday. He cashed the over in four of his last six outings and averaged three threes on 36.2 percent shooting in March.

The Hornets are on the second night of a back-to-back, but they’re at home. The Boston Celtics have one of the best defenses in basketball and typically do a great job guarding the three-point line, but they’ve been experimenting with new defensive coverages, plus Miller is going to get his shots up no matter what.

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Ayo Dosunmu Over 18.5 Points+Assists (-102) DraftKings Sportsbook

Ayo (Dosunmu, not Technology) played excellent basketball each of the last two months. He put up 13 points and six assists against the Minnesota Timberwolves’ outstanding defense on Sunday and went over this total in six of his last eight games while averaging 36.9 minutes of action.

The Chicago Bulls are taking on the Atlanta Hawks, who seem to struggle with most teams not named the Celtics. Atlanta showed real promise after Trae Young’s injury but plummeted to 27th in defensive rating over the last 10 games and is without several important defensive pieces, including Jalen Johnson and Onyeka Okongwu.

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Herbert Jones 4+ Assists (+150) DraftKings Sportsbook

Jones, a former SEC Defensive Player of the Year in college, is quickly becoming a very well-rounded player for the surging New Orleans Pelicans. On top of being a first-team All-Defense candidate, he shot 42.3 percent from three-point territory and averaged more than three assists and rebounds in March.

The 6-foot-7 swingman hit the over in four of his last eight games, giving him theoretical odds of +100 (50/50) over the last couple of weeks. If he can continue that level of performance against a Phoenix Suns team that is average-at-best at defense, then he’s worth the gamble for the odds value.

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