NBA Player Props and Best Bets for Thursday 3/28/24

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Kevin Durant’s monster night helped the Phoenix Suns earn another victory against the Jamal Murray-less Denver Nuggets on the road, while another LeBron James triple-double pushed the Los Angeles Lakers to a win over the Memphis Grizzlies on the second night of a back-to-back.

Here are our favorite NBA player prop picks for Thursday.

Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook. Use our FanDuel promo code for a chance for a $200 bonus.

Kristaps Porzingis Over 18.5 Points (-102) at FanDuel

There’s no player in the NBA who is better at punishing mismatches than Kristaps Porzingis. While the Atlanta Hawks have size they can throw at the 28-year-old and his All-Star teammates, they started a relatively small lineup featuring Dejounte Murray, Vit Krejci, and Bogdan Bogdanovic in their last game.

Porzingis only managed 17 points in the Boston Celtics’ epic 30-point collapse against Atlanta but scored 31 when they met in February and averaged 20.7 in March. Expect him to come out looking for his shot and ready to remind the world of what he and the Celtics have done all season.

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Dejounte Murray Under 8.5 Assists (-113) at FanDuel

Murray is taking full advantage of his opportunity to be “the guy” with Trae Young rehabbing an injury, averaging 25.8 points, 9.2 assists, and 5.1 rebounds in March. He went under this line on Wednesday but cashed the over six straight times before that, including when he dished out 15 helpers against the Celtics on Monday.

Despite Murray’s strong performance against Boston, there’s reason to expect regression. Firstly, it’s unlikely Atlanta’s offense goes scorched Earth the way it did during the comeback, and secondly, Boston’s length and defensive versatility make them one of the toughest defenses to break down. The C’s allowed the sixth-fewest assists per game since the All-Star break and should make life tough for Murray.

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Zion Williamson Under 25.5 Points (-115) at FanDuel

Williamson finds himself in quite a strong stretch of play over the past couple of weeks, which the New Orleans Pelicans desperately needed with Brandon Ingram sidelined by a knee injury. He went over this total in seven of his last nine games and just scored 29 points against the Oklahoma City Thunder last night.

As well as the former first-overall pick played recently, he struggled historically in his head-to-head matchups with Giannis Antetokounmkpo. In five meetings, he scored more than 23 points just once and has not beaten this line since early 2021, which is why we’re fading him in this spot.

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Khris Middleton Under 1.5 Threes (+108) at FanDuel

Middleton has been back from an injury for four games and made 2+ threes in three of those (though one went to double-overtime). He’s also shot an adequate 36.8 percent on 4.8 attempts per game, which begs the question of why we’re looking at his under this spot.

The Pelicans hold opponents to the lowest average three-point shooting (34.5 percent) in the entire league. They also have incredible length, size, and versatility, with active defenders who have great instincts. It’s going to be hard for anyone to have a great night from outside, much less a player who is still working to find his rhythm.

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Trey Murphy III Over 5.5 Rebounds (+106) at FanDuel

Murphy III’s size at 6-foot-8 will be crucial to the Pelicans’ potential success going against a Bucks team that is the tallest in the league. To his credit, he has been consistent on the boards as of late, going over this line in three straight and 11 of his last 15 outings.

As much size as the Bucks have with Giannis Antetokunmpo, Brook Lopez, Bobby Portis, and others, they rank just 16th in rebound rate since the All-Star break. Expect the Pelicans’ wings to be under strict instruction to crash the boards and help their bigs, a strategy that should help Murphy beat his line.

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