NBA Player Props and Best Bets for Wednesday 3/6/24

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Dean Wade outscored the Boston Celtics by himself in the fourth quarter as the Cleveland Cavaliers came back from 22 down to beat the best team in the league against all odds, while Alperen Sengun went for a career-high 45 points, 16 rebounds, and five steals against Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs.

Here are our favorite NBA player prop picks for Wednesday.

Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook. Use our FanDuel promo link and get $150 in bonus bets if your first bet wins.

De’Aaron Fox Over 5.5 Assists (-138) at FanDuel

Fox dished out 10 helpers against the Chicago Bulls his last time on the court and beat this line in six straight games dating back to February 11. He and the Sacramento Kings are taking on a Los Angeles Lakers squad they beat and covered against twice, and one that ranks 20th in defensive rating over its last 14 games (and even worse since the All-Star break).

The Kings run dribble-hand-offs, usually with Domantas Sabonis and Fox, at nearly twice the rate of the second-place team. The Lakers are in the bottom half of the league at defending these actions and also leaned into their offense much more than their defense recently, which should give Fox enough openings to go over his total.

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Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 11.5 Rebounds (-113) at FanDuel

Assuming the Greek Freak is able to overcome his Achilles tendonitis and make it onto the court, there’s a great chance that he will grab at least 12 rebounds against the Golden State Warriors. He hauled in 16 boards in his last game against the Bulls and sat out of Monday’s win against the Los Angeles Clippers, which means he’ll be rested for this matchup.

The Warriors are third in rebound rate but mostly accomplished that through gang rebounding at the guard and wing positions. They don’t necessarily have one player that can consistently outduel Giannis on the boards, especially since they like to play small, so we trust the two-time MVP to beat his rebounding total.

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Wendell Carter Jr. Over 7.5 Rebounds (-102) at FanDuel

The Washington Wizards lost 15 straight games and are now, in all likelihood, the worst team in the NBA. So although the Orlando Magic are on the second night of a back-to-back and on the road, they aren’t going to face an opponent that is ready to punish them if they show up a little lethargic.

Carter Jr. only averages 6.6 boards and came up with nine on Tuesday and beat this line in four of his last six games. The Wizards have the lowest rebounding rate in the league, and Orlando’s suffocation perimeter defense should force Washington into missing lots of shots and creating lots of rebounding opportunities.

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Jalen Johnson Over 16.5 Points (-102) at FanDuel

Johnson, a 22-year-old contender for the Most Improved Player award, scored 26 points on an ultra-efficient 70.6% shooting from the field against the New York Knicks on Tuesday and cashed the over in four of his last seven games. He’s also playing heavy minutes and has a more prominent role as a scorer since Trae Young is sidelined by an injury. 

The Cleveland Cavaliers managed to miraculously come back against the Boston Celtics last night, but that win required a lot of energy, and they’re now on the road on the second night of a back-to-back. Kristaps Porzingis also went for 24 against them and their injury-depleted lineup, and Johnson could find similar success.

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Ayo Dosunmu Over 15.5 Points (-102) at FanDuel

We picked Dosunmu to cash the over on Monday, which is exactly what he did en route to 20 points on 60% shooting against the Sacramento Kings. He now recorded at least 16 points in three of his last five while playing heavy minutes and is becoming a more trusted and important part of the lineup with every game.

The Chicago Bulls are taking on the Utah Jazz, who are one of the worst defensive teams in basketball and allowed more points per 100 possessions over the last 10 games than every other team. They’re also missing Lauri Markkanenm, Walker Kessler, and Taylor Hendricks, which means the driving lanes should be more open than usual.

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