NBA Player Props and Best Bets for Thursday 2/29/24

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LeBron James’ fourth-quarter takeover helped the Los Angeles Lakers come back from 19 down in the fourth quarter to beat the Los Angeles Clippers, while the Chicago Bulls managed to take down the Cleveland Cavaliers in double-overtimes behind 35 points from DeMar DeRozan.

Here are our favorite NBA player prop picks for Thursday.

Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook. Use our FanDuel promo link and get $150 in bonus bets if your first bet wins.

Jalen Brunson Over 30.5 Points (-122) at FanDuel

Brunson is questionable with a neck issue on Thursday, but if he plays, we like him to go over his total. He scored 31 or more points in 11 of his last 17 games and both of his last two and averaged 32.4 points on 46.8% field goal shooting in the month of February.

The Knicks’ star guard is used to doing the majority of the heavy lifting at this point and won’t mind playing without Julius Randle, OG Anunoby, and others. He’s also facing a Golden State Warriors squad that has improved defensively but doesn’t have anyone shifty enough to prevent him from getting to his patented footwork in the painted area.

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Victor Wembanyama Over 21.5 Points (-125) at FanDuel

Think back to Wemby’s last game against the Oklahoma City Thunder—remember how personally he took the matchup with Chet Holmgren, his leading competition for the Rookie of the Year award? Don’t be surprised if the 20-year-old phenom comes out with that same level of commitment and desire on Thursday.

The next step in Wemby’s development will be for him to become more consistent shooting the ball, but he beat this line in four of his last six games and averaged 20.6 points on 47/38/85 shooting splits during February. He also scored 24 points in 28 minutes in his last matchup with OKC after dropping just eight back in November.

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Bam Adebayo Over 19.5 Points (-115) at FanDuel

Bam scored 20+ points in all five matchups against the Denver Nuggets in the NBA Finals and has been consistently scoring the ball as of late, beating this total in five of his last seven games. He has not faced the Nuggets yet this season but is getting them on the second night of a back-to-back, which makes the matchup more favorable than it usually would be.

Denver has problems defending the roll man in the pick-and-roll (fourth-most points per possession allowed), which should work to the benefit of the Kentucky product. Nikola Jokic also allowed the fifth-highest field goal percentage amongst regular starting centers, which Bam should be able to take advantage of. 

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Jalen Johnson Double-Double (-105) at FanDuel

Johnson, a 22-year-old Most Improved Player candidate, has double-doubles in four straight and seven of his last 10 games. He averaged 16.3 points, 10.2 rebounds, and 4.4 assists while playing 37.5 minutes during February, which shows how central he is to the team’s game plan (especially in the absence of Trae Young).

The Atlanta Hawks are taking on the Brooklyn Nets, who do not seem to have much direction at the current time. They lost eight of 10 games and rank 18th and 19th in rebound rate and defensive rating respectively, giving the young high-flier an opportunity to boost his averages against a weak opponent that is not playing well.

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Dillon Brooks Under 12.5 Points (-122) at FanDuel

All of Dillon’s villain instincts are going to be applied to the defensive end of the court on Thursday as the Houston Rockets prepare to take on the Phoenix Suns. Not only does Houston play much worse on the road than it does at home, but he’ll have to spend most of the night chasing around Kevin Durant and Devin Booker as the team’s primary defender, which will take the energy out of his legs and affect his jump shot.

Brooks only scored seven points against the Thunder on Tuesday and now scored seven or fewer points in three of his last four games, including a two-point disaster class against Phoenix last Friday. He’s shooting 41.9% from downtown for the month and had a nice scoring burst before the All-Star break but he should find it difficult to replicate that in this matchup.

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