NBA Player Props and Best Bets for Thursday 2/22/24

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The NBA is back and entering decisive times as teams around the league prepare to make the final push for the playoffs. The Boston Celtics and Minnesota Timberwolves have been the top teams in their respective conferences, but there are plenty of other teams that are looking to challenge that. 

Here are our favorite NBA player prop picks for Thursday.

Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook. Use our FanDuel promo code for $150 in bonus bets.

Franz Wagner over 19.5 points (-102) at FanDuel

Wagner and the Orlando Magic are looking to climb back to a top-six seed after falling to eighth and setting themselves up to compete in the Play-In Tournament. They have a tough matchup in their return to the court in the form of the Cleveland Cavaliers, who have the second-best defensive rating in basketball and have won 18 of their last 20 games.

The Cavs are likely to start their best defender, Evan Mobley, on Paolo Banchero, which means Wagner will get the lesser defender (Max Strus). He beat this line four times in his last six games and averaged 25.1 points to start February, and he had a great chance to cash the over in this spot.

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Luka Doncic over 31.5 points (-122) at FanDuel

Luka and the Mavs are primed for take-off in the post-All-Star break portion of the campaign following a couple of smart acquisitions at the trade deadline. They’re also facing a Phoenix team that was top-five in defensive rating over its last 10 games but that could be down Bradley Beal, who suffered a hamstring injury just before the break.

Luka averages 34.2 points per game and beats this line in five of his last eight games. He also scored a total of 84 points in two matchups against Phoenix this season, resulting in two overs. Watch for him to come out rejuvenated following the break and lead his team with a strong performance.

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Russell Westbrook over 4.5 rebounds (+102) at FanDuel

Russ’ energy has never been in question, but his rebounding numbers were way down at the start of February (just 3.1 per game in 24.6 minutes). However, at 35, he will have benefited from the break just as much as anyone and should come out with a pep in his step.

The Los Angeles Clippers have an important game against the Oklahoma City Thunder, who Russ weirdly collected two and 13 rebounds against in two matchups. OKC’s three-point shooting and lack of size should give “Brodie” enough chances to get over his line, and we believe he’ll do just that.

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Nikola Jokic under 49.5 points+rebounds+assists (-108) at FanDuel

Jokic put up 42 points, 12 rebounds, and eight assists on 75% shooting during a Jan. 21 matchup against the Wizards—so why are we leaning toward the under? The answer has to do with the teams more than the players.

While Jokic could easily dominate this game, we expect the Nuggets to blow the Wizards off the court and for Jokic to either take it easy or earn an early rest. Denver is favored by 15 points at home and has a +9.5 net rating in their building, whereas Washington is -6.8 per 100 possessions on the road. 

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Jaylen Brown under 20.5 points (-128) at FanDuel

Brown hit the under five straight times leading into the All-Star break and averaged 16 points to start February. Interestingly, the Boston Celtics won all of those games, which means that there isn’t overwhelming pressure on him to change his ways or to look to dominate his one-on-one matchup.

The C’s are facing the Chicago Bulls, who allow the eighth-fewest points per 100 possessions in their building and play at the slowest pace in the league, which means fewer shots and fewer points to go around. Watch this to be more of a defensive battle, and for Brown to finish with 20 or fewer points.

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