Damian Lillard Over 27.5 Points (-106) at FanDuel
Lillard has been up and down, averaging 27.6 points in wins and 19.3 in losses. However, some of that risk should be mitigated by the fact he and the Milwaukee Bucks are facing a four-win Detroit Pistons squad, whom the Bucks have already beaten three times on Monday.
Lillard averaged 37.3 points and beat this total in all three meetings with the Pistons this season. He just dropped 45 points and made five threes when the two played on Saturday, so he should enter the game with enough momentum to record yet another over.
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Victor Wembanyama Under 31.5 Points+Rebounds (-113) at FanDuel
Wemby’s Rookie of the Year campaign went to another level recently as he made a midseason jump in efficiency. However, he’s about to take on not only the reigning MVP/MVP frontrunner, Joel Embiid, but he’s simply going to take on the strongest and most menacing interior force in the league.
Wemby’s lack of strength and overaggressiveness on defense means that he’s in real danger of foul trouble and will struggle to grab contested rebounds. He went over this total in four straight games but is only averaging 24.9 minutes per game this month and should struggle because of Embiid.
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LaMelo Ball Over 21.5 Points (-113) at FanDuel
Finding LaMelo at this low of a line makes him a near must-bet. He went over in three of four games since his return and dropped 28 points on 76.9% field goal shooting his last time out. He also averaged 25.1 points per game and only has two unders in his last 14 games.
The Charlotte Hornets are huge underdogs against the Minnesota Timberwolves, but LaMelo, as their only true All-Star-caliber player, should get a ton of shooting opportunities. Minnesota also just allowed Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to drop 33 points on Saturday and can afford to let LaMelo have a strong box score so long as they play tough defense on his teammates.
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Dereck Lively II Over 16.5 Points+Rebounds (-108) at FanDuel
Lively, a 19-year-old rookie, has already proven himself to be one of the most valuable interior defenders and lob threats in the league. His production has been somewhat inconsistent based on the number of minutes he plays, but he went over in each of his last two games and should be fresh since he hasn’t played since last Wednesday.
The Boston Celtics are on the second night of a back-to-back and rely on their wings and guards to help them control the glass. Lively should have a size advantage a lot of the time he’s on the court, making his job as a scorer and rebounder much easier.
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Nikola Vucevic Under 18.5 Points (-120) at FanDuel
Vucevic hasn’t averaged 18 points for a month once this season and is coming off an 11-point performance in only 25 minutes against the Memphis Grizzlies. He went under this line in seven of his last 11 games and is really struggling from three-point land, shooting just 26.8% from range (the worst of his career since he started taking threes).
The Chicago Bulls are taking on a Phoenix Suns team that is much improved on defense and is up to 12th in def. rating over the last 10 games. Phoenix also likes to deploy smaller lineups and could play Vucevic off the court if they exploit his defensive limitations on the perimeter.
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