Trae Young 30+ points (+105) at FanDuel
Trae is playing some of the best individual basketball in the NBA and put up 30+ points and 10+ assists in five straight games, the third-longest streak of its kind. In a season marked with disappointment (Atlanta is only 12-15), Trae has a chance to write his name in the NBA history books if he can continue his elite play.
The Miami Heat have presented problems to Young in the past, but they’re only 21st in field goal percentage and 22nd in three-point percentage allowed. We bet against him a couple of days ago, and we learned our lesson. We like Young to stay hot in this one.
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Nicolas Claxton over 10.5 points (-125) at FanDuel
Claxton’s matchup, Nikola Jokic, will get most of the attention on Friday, but there’s real value in betting on the Brooklyn Nets’ center. He went over this line in four of his last seven games and was well on his way to hitting the over when these teams matched up eight days ago, but foul trouble meant he could only get to 10 points in 17 minutes.
More than 20 starting centers hold opponents to a lower field goal percentage than Jokic does, and Claxton scored 19 and 20 points in their matchups last season. As long as he can avoid foul trouble and stay on the court, he has a great chance to be the clean-up man and take advantage of Jokic’s defensive lapses.
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Devin Booker over 29.5 points (-125) at FanDuel
Booker is scoring the ball at an extremely high clip. Although he went under this line in three straight outings, he went over in three of five just before and is facing a Sacramento Kings team that gave up 144 and 131 points in its last two games. Booker also scored 28 points on an ultra-efficient 10-14 shooting when they met near the start of the month.
Bradley Beal and Jusuf Nurkic are both out on Friday, which means that Booker and Kevin Durant will have even more of a responsibility to score the ball. Booker has the ball in his hands more and can call his own number, especially against a team that’s only 26th in three-point percentage allowed (38.6%).
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Steph Curry over 5.5 assists (+120) at FanDuel
Steph needed overtime to get six assists against the Celtics and only scored seven points in the game before, in which he dished out eight assists. He also had a five-game streak of unders before those and only averages 4.4 assists per game for the season.
The obvious concern is that Draymond Green’s suspension will mean that Curry has the ball in his hands more and will spend more time playmaking for his teammates, but the transition to younger players has meant that Golden State is driving the ball a lot more, and Curry is often in position to get a hockey assist. The Washington Wizards are also so bad defensively that he might just go for 40+ points without even thinking about passing the ball.
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Tyrese Maxey under 3.5 threes (-125) at FanDuel
Maxey is awesome and made five threes in three straight games—however, his teammate, Joel Embiid, is chasing history in the form of the longest streak of games with 30+ points and 10+ rebounds. Embiid proved last year with his outspoken MVP campaign that he cares about individual honors, and we expect Maxey to default to him to a certain extent.
The Toronto Raptors are a little better than league average at defending the three and have a player in Dennis Schroder who is willing to pick up the ball-handler high up the court. That added ball pressure should lead to Maxey driving the ball more than shooting it which is why we’re leaning under on his threes.
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