Luka Doncic under 9.5 assists (+108 at FanDuel)
Luka was the magic man against the Los Angeles Lakers on Tuesday, racking up 33 points and 17 assists in a win without Kyrie Irving and Derrick Jones Jr. in the lineup. But as great of a playmaker as he was just two days ago, we’re looking at the under on his assists here.
The Dallas Mavericks are facing the Minnesota Timberwolves, who are widely recognized for having the best defensive rating in basketball. A large part of that is because of their solidarity at the rim with Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns, and Luka’s easy lobs and ability to collapse the defense won’t look the same here. We expect him to score a lot of points but not quite hit 10 assists.
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Nikola Jokic over 28.5 points (-113 at FanDuel)
Jokic was ejected from the Denver Nuggets’ Tuesday game against the Chicago Bulls and did not seem very happy with the decision. He’s back in his home arena, where the Nuggets are 9-1 this season, on Thursday, and will be ready to go with more rest than usual.
The Nuggets are facing the Brooklyn Nets, who are 21st in defensive rating and have a center in Nic Claxton, who, although he is a good defender, is much lighter than the Joker. Watch for him to toss around the Nets’ defense and take out his frustrations from Tuesday.
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Chet Holmgren over 7.5 rebounds (-125 at FanDuel)
Holmgren could have a stylistic advantage tonight against the Sacramento Kings. Mike Brown has often given forward Keegan Murray a larger defensive responsibility, which means that he could spend time guarding Shai Gilgeous-Alexander or some of the OKC Thunder’s smaller players.
If that happens, Holmgren will likely only have to go one-on-one with Domantas Sabonis to collect his rebounds. Sabonis is strong on the glass, but Holmgren has gone over this total three times in four games this month and has taken on more responsibility on the boards as the season has progressed.
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Coby White under 3.5 threes (+112 at FanDuel)
White has been shooting the leather off of the ball recently. He’s at 57.4% three-point shooting in five games in December and has made at least four threes in five of his last six games.
Why are we taking the under, you might ask? Simply put, White cannot sustain that level of marksmanship—nobody can. The Miami Heat is also a strong defensive team that plays at a slower pace, which will lead to fewer opportunities for White to shoot the rock.
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Jayson Tatum to record a double-double (+100 at FanDuel)
Tatum is going to score 10 points no matter what (famous last words), which means that this bet is all about his rebounds. He grabbed 10+ in two of his last three outings, including 10 against this same Cleveland Cavaliers team on Tuesday.
The Cavs have Jarrett Allen anchoring the middle but are expected to be without Evan Mobley, which will leave them smaller than usual in the frontcourt. Dean Wade and Georges Niang spent time guarding Tatum and only came up with five rebounds in 43 combined minutes, and they’re unlikely to slow him down on Thursday.
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