NBA Player Props and Best Bets for Wednesday 12/13/23

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Luka Doncic’s 33-point, 17-assist night helped cut the Los Angeles Lakers’ In-Season Tournament celebrations short as the Dallas Mavericks won their fourth straight game, while the Los Angeles Clippers blew out the Sacramento Kings to extend their win streak to five. 

Here are our favorite NBA player prop picks for Wednesday.

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Joel Embiid over 33.5 points (-115 at FanDuel)

Yes, we’re going back to the well with the over on Embiid’s points. He’s simply playing outstanding basketball and is one of the top MVP candidates yet again, and he’s averaging 33.4 points per game (and scored 30+ in eight straight outings). Meanwhile, the Detroit Pistons just gave up 23 points to Myles Turner, who’s nowhere near the offensive threat Embiid is.

Jalen Duren is out again, which will leave James Wiseman to contend with Embiid at the rim. Detroit commits more fouls per game than any team in the league and should send Embiid to the line a ton of times while also providing little resistance at the rim, setting him up for another explosive scoring night (assuming he isn’t yanked early in a blowout).

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Fred VanVleet over 3.5 threes (-104 at FanDuel)

The Memphis Grizzlies have really struggled to defend the perimeter without Ja Morant, Marcus Smart, and even Tyus Jones available to throw at opposing guards. They allow opponents to shoot the best three-point percentage in the league (39.7%) and are going against a player in VanVleet who has one of the quickest triggers in the league.

The former champion with the Toronto Raptors is shooting 8.3 threes per game and making 38% of his attempts, and he splashed four threes in three of his last four games (including Monday’s contest against the San Antonio Spurs). With his commitment to shooting the triple and the Grizzlies’ inviting defense, we think he has a great chance to go over his total.

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Dennis Schroder over 14.5 points (-111 at FanDuel) 

Schroder scored 20 points in Monday’s loss to the New York Knicks, which ended a four-game streak of failing to score more than 10 points. But with the Toronto Raptors starting to struggle and a particular stylistic advantage working in his favor, Wednesday could mark his second time in a row having a strong scoring night.

The Raptors are taking on the Atlanta Hawks, who boast the fourth-worst defensive rating in the entire league. Their point guard, Trae Young, is also one of few who is as small as Schroder and is also a poor defender, which should give the German guard a chance to carve up his former team.

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Orlando Robinson under 7.5 rebounds (-104 at FanDuel)

Robinson is the Miami Heat’s new starting center while Bam Adebayo is dealing with a hip problem. Although he filled in decently well, his minutes were cut in each of his last two starts to 20 and 22 minutes, and he split the over/under on rebounds (six and eight). 

The Charlotte Hornets only played one center during the teams’ matchup on Monday, and it looks like they’ll be without Mark Williams for the Wednesday rematch. With that in mind, plus Robinson’s recently-reduced minutes, we expect both teams to play small for long periods of time, leaving him with fewer chances to pad his rebounding total.

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Zion Williamson over 23.5 points (-115 at FanDuel) 

Zion used the fuel of criticism of his poor showing in the In-Season Tournament semifinal to power him to 36 points on 13-17 shooting against the league’s top-ranked defense on Monday. Now, he gets to go against a Washington Wizards team that is the total opposite and ranks 30th in defensive rating and points allowed per game.

As is the case with Embiid’s prop, we’re slightly worried that the Pelicans will blow the Wizards off the court and Zion won’t have enough time to cash the over. Even still, he was on an excellent stretch scoring the ball before a few slow games to start the month, and it won’t get much easier than taking on the Wiz.

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