Joel Embiid under 31.5 Points (-120) at FanDuel
The Philadelphia 76ers historically struggle with the Boston Celtics, and Joel Embiid has trouble with the matchups they throw his way. Although he’s leading the league in scoring, he went under 30 points in both matchups against Boston this season and has cracked 31.5 twice in his last eight encounters with the C’s.
Boston is second in the league in defensive rating and does a great job switching and doubling Embiid. To his credit, he’s gotten much better at baiting the double-team and drawing fouls or kicking to open teammates, but we don’t see him taking over from a scoring perspective as he so often does.
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Dennis Schroder Over 6.5 Assists (+100) at FanDuel
Schroder, a 10-year vet, is averaging the most assists per game of his career (6.9) in his first season with the Toronto Raptors. He recorded 21 in his last two games and, although he isn’t as active a playmaker as he was at the start of the year, is still the primary initiator for the offense.
The Raptors are taking on the New York Knicks and their excellent defense, but Schroder has a chance to have a great outing. Jalen Brunson is one of few point guards as small as he is, and the fact NY’s defense is so strong only means that Schroder will have to create more than usual.
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Nikola Jokic Over 30.5 Points (-108) at FanDuel
Jokic scored 32 points in Jamal Murray’s return from a hamstring injury and now has 30+ point games in four straight outings. His three ball has left him, but he’s averaging a cool 29.7 points in November and cashed over 30.5 in eight of 14 games.
The Denver Nuggets are taking on another top contender in the Western Conference in the Phoenix Suns, who are led by the dynamite scoring duo of Kevin Durant and Devin Booker. Both players are equally capable of putting up 30 points in a night and will force Jokic to match them as a scorer more than as a passer.
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Victory Wembanyama Over 9.5 Rebounds (+100) at FanDuel
Wembanyama has grown as a rebounder as the year progressed and is now averaging 9.7 boards per game. He also brought down 10+ in back-to-back games and in six of his last nine outings, showing that he’s committed to the cause.
The San Antonio Spurs do very little well, but they have a chance to take advantage of the New Orleans Pelicans’ weakness on the glass (19th in rebounding percentage). The Pels are also down a couple of players, and only Jonas Valanciunas is a known rebounder.
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Paolo Banchero Over 21.5 Points (-113) at FanDuel
Banchero effectively took the night off on Wednesday as he scored only six points in a 139-120 win against the Washington Wizards. Franz Wagner dealt most of the damage and put up 31 points in three quarters, but all that’s done is inflate his line and leave Banchero at an attractive value heading into Friday’s rematch against the Wiz.
Banchero scored 23+ points in five straight games before Wednesday and has drastically improved his efficiency, increasing his numbers to 48.1% from the field and 43.6% from three. The Wizards play at the second-fastest pace in the league and also give up the second-most points per game, which is a formula for overs for opponents.
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