Kevin Durant under 1.5 threes (+116)
At some point, you have to believe when people tell you who they are. Durant is attempting the fewest threes per game of his career since the 2008-09 season (3.5) and is shooting just 28.6% from long range. While that percentage won’t hold, the low attempts very well could.
Durant made exactly one three in all four of the Phoenix Suns’ games thus far. Without Devin Booker and Bradley Beal out of the lineup, defenders are able to crowd him on the three-point line and funnel him toward the basket, where the help defense is waiting.
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Victor Wembanyama over 1.5 threes (-113)
Wemby is shooting 68% from the field and 43% from three in the second half of NBA games—now, he needs to translate that success to the first half, where he’s only shot 28% and 17% from beyond the arc. He’s hit 2+ threes in two of four games and is taking 4.8 attempts per game but shooting only 26.3% overall.
The 7-foot-4 French sensation admitted after his last game that after watching his idol, Durant, play in person, he still has a long way to go in his development. While that’s undeniable, it also shows his awareness and temperament. We believe that Wemby will want to have another great game in front of Durant and will make at least a couple of long rangers.
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Lauri Markkanen over 3.5 threes (-104)
The reigning Most Improved Player made four or five threes in four of the Utah Jazz’s five games. He’s come out of the gates shooting a ridiculous 46.7% from the perimeter, and we don’t want to bet against someone as streaky as he is.
The Orlando Magic are third in defensive rating but completely average at defending the three ball (34.7% allowed - 14th.) They also don’t have a natural defender capable of matching Markkanen’s size and perimeter game, so we’re expecting another big night from Finland’s finest.
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Dennis Schroder under 7.5 assists (-132)
Schroder is averaging a career-high 9.2 assists in a very limited sample size. He hasn’t hit under 7.5 since the season opener five games ago, but we’re getting ahead of the trend and expecting a regression to the mean.
The Toronto Raptors are shooting just 45.3% from the field, which is 20th. That makes Schroder’s assists totals even more outlandish since they aren’t making most of their shots. The Philadelphia 76ers hold opponents to the ninth-worst field goal percentage and also play at a slower tempo, leading to fewer shots, so we like the under.
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Ausar Thompson over 10.5 points (+102)
Thompson is as exciting of a rookie not named Wembanyama as there is. In addition to averaging 9.8 rebounds and two blocks as a 6’6 wing, he’s starting to figure out how to score the ball and put up 15 and 16 points in his last two games.
Thompson has still made only one three-pointer all year and is shooting 10% from distance, but he’s looked great moving downhill and attacking the basket. The New Orleans Pelicans have done a nice job defending their early opponents but are poor on the glass, and we think Thompson can steal a couple of easy second-chance opportunities.
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