Mitchell Robinson over 11.5 rebounds (+104)
Robinson is the best rebounder on the league’s best rebounding team and is especially devastating on the offensive glass. He snatched 15 boards in his last game against the Hawks and recorded 12+ rebounds in four of his last six games and in a total of six out of 10 games throughout the entire season.
The New York Knicks are taking on the Washington Wizards, who rank dead last in rebounding percentage. The Wiz also don’t have a player averaging even 7.5 rebounds per game and are thin on the interior, which should work to Robinson’s advantage.
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Dejounte Murray over 5.5 assists (+114)
Murray might’ve only hit the over once in his last four games, but he's hit it six times in 11 games so far. The Hawks are also ninth in team field goal percentage, which means that they’re burying a decent amount of their open looks.
The Atlanta Hawks are taking on the Philadelphia 76ers, who have one of the best defensive ratings in the league. We believe that Murray is the better pick to go over on his assist total since Trae Young will draw the best perimeter defender and the defense will be shaded in his direction.
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De’Aaron Fox under 28.5 points (-118)
Fox has been awesome since his return from injury and is averaging 30 points in five games. However, he scored 28 in both of his last two games and is three-for-five on unders overall despite shooting a career-high in field goal attempts and three-point attempts.
As Fox’s attempts return to a normal level, his scoring average will drop. The San Antonio Spurs are atrocious defensively and also don’t rebound the ball well, but Fox is a willing passer and will share the wealth with his teammates. There’s also a chance this game is a blowout and he doesn’t play deep into the fourth quarter.
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Fred VanVleet 4+ threes (+190)
For the second year in a row, VanVleet’s three-point percentage is nearly the same as his field goal percentage. Luckily, all we need are threes for this prop to hit, and VanVleet has proven that he’s good for those.
The former champion with the Toronto Raptors made 4+ threes in three of six games this month and is shooting 37.7% from long range on 8.8 attempts per game. The Houston Rockets are taking on the Los Angeles Clippers, whose frontcourt of Russell Westbrook and James Harden is weak at the point of attack and will afford space to Houston’s PG.
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D’Angelo Russell over 5.5 assists (-130)
Russell could barely get on the floor in the playoffs but has somewhat reinvented himself to start the new season. He averages 6.6 assists per game despite having a fairly low usage rate and gave out 11 assists when the Los Angeles Lakers played the Portland Trail Blazers last Sunday.
The Blazers are injured and not playing well at the moment, having lost five straight games. The Lakers also need to find ways to give LeBron James rest, even if it’s on the court, whenever they can, and the easiest solution is by letting Russell set the table for his teammates (who are suddenly shooting the ball much better).
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