LaMelo Ball 12+ assists (+250)
The regular line for Ball’s assists is 9.5, and we’d recommend the over on that for more risk-averse bettors. But for those looking to take a risk, there is real value in this line of 12+.
The Charlotte Hornets and Washington Wizards are both bottom three in defensive rating and top five in possessions per game, meaning they play fast and play little to no defense. The Wiz just gave up 146 points to the 76ers, and we have a feeling that LaMelo (who averages 9.3 assists) will help create plenty of open looks for his teammates.
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Tyrese Maxey over 3.5 rebounds (-104)
Maxey averages 4.5 boards per game and has gone over 3.5 in four of six outings. The Celtics are one of the best defensive teams in the league but shoot the third-most threes per game and rely on their guards to haul in rebounds, which should give Maxey a platform to go over.
Maxey’s speed in transition and ability to get the ball moving down-court are also invaluable assets and will be key to breaking down a strong Celtics defense. We think there will be an added focus on him crashing the boards and expect him to go over, potentially even by enough to cash an alternate line of 6+.
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Paul George over 20.5 points (-113)
Let’s clear the air in the room. We whiffed badly on Monday when we took George for 25+ points in James Harden’s LA Clippers debut, and he only finished with 10 points. However, this is a situation for the team’s best player to step up, and PG13 has been that to start the year.
The Brooklyn Nets have lots of versatile wings that will switch on defense. The whole Clippers roster is still figuring out how to accommodate Harden, but we expect the first-game jitters to be out of the way and for George to assert himself against a team that is 25th in defensive rating.
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Victor Wembanyama under 8.5 rebounds (-113)
The world is about to find out how Wemby’s skeletal frame will hold up against the brutes of the NBA. In this context, that will be Julius Randle and Mitchell Robinson, who are among the strongest players and best offensive rebounds in the NBA.
The Knicks are dead last in field goal percentage but made 47% of their shots their last time out and are getting a Spurs squad that is 29th in defensive rating. We think Wemby could be bullied out of the paint, which would lead to him having a hard time grabbing nine rebounds (especially since he averages 8.4 as is).
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Scottie Barnes over 1.5 threes (-113)
Barnes set a season-high for three-point attempts in three straight games, putting up six, seven, and 10. He’s shooting 47.8% from long range this month and 42.1% for the year and looks much more fluid getting the ball into the shooting pocket and then putting it up than he has in years past.
The Dallas Mavericks don’t have a great defensive matchup for Barnes and are bottom 10 in three-point defense. The Raptors don’t have great spacing and are affording Barnes the luxury of calling his own number, and we like the momentum he’s built recently.
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