YellaWood 500 Predictions: Golden Opportunity for Playoff Backmarkers

• Joey Logano will be a significant threat, if only he can stay out of trouble.

• Alex Bowman has quietly been one of Hendrick’s strongest Playoff entries.

• Ryan Blaney looks formidable as he continues NASCAR Cup title defense.

YellaWood 500 Betting Odds

The following odds are taken from bet365 Sportsbook. Use our promo code WSN365 at bet365 to claim your bonus of choice: $1,000 Safety Net Bet OR $150 in Bonus Bets.

Our Picks for the YellaWood 500

• Ryan Blaney to win the race at +1000 at bet365

• Alex Bowman to finish in the top five at +400 at bet365       

• Michael McDowell to finish in the top three at +650 at bet365

• Bubba Wallace to finish in the top three at +650 at bet365

• Hedge bet: Any Toyota driver to win the race at +350 at bet365

YellaWood 500 Predictions

Joey Logano Will Be a Contender, If He Can Avoid the “Big One”

Joey Logano has an admirable record at Talladega Superspeedway—three victories and nine top-five finishes in 31 starts at NASCAR’s longest oval track.

But Logano hasn’t enjoyed success at the track since NASCAR introduced the Gen 7 car in 2022, in part because it’s harder to control the front of the field with the new race car.

Logano’s best finish in the Gen 7 is 19th in the spring race earlier this season, but that doesn’t mean he hasn’t been a frontrunner. Logano has led laps in all but one Gen 7 race at Talladega. In last year’s Playoff race, he led 48 laps before being shuffled back to 24th in the late going.

If Logano can avoid the major accidents that tend to plague Talladega races, he’ll be a contender. We just don’t think he’ll be the winner at +1000 via BetMGM.

Logano needs a good finish to get off the Playoff bubble with the Round of 12 elimination race coming a week later at the Charlotte Roval. Accordingly, he might be too conservative to win.

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Alex Bowman Has Been the Playoff Surprise for Hendrick Motorsports

Few handicappers gave Alex Bowman much of a chance to advance past the opening round of the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs.

Yet not only did Bowman make it to the Round of 12, but he’s also in position to qualify for the Round of 8 if he can get past Talladega unscathed and post a reasonable finish at the Charlotte Roval.

There has been speculation throughout the season that Bowman might lose his ride in the No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet, but Bowman’s win on the Chicago Street Course and team owner Rick Hendrick’s vote of confidence put the rumors to rest.

Bowman has responded with the surprise performance of the Playoffs so far—three top 10s in four Playoff races, most recently a sixth at Kansas in the opening race of the Round of 12. That leaves Bowman eight points above the cutoff heading to Talladega.

Bowman has a respectable record at fickle Talladega, with two top fives and five top 10s in 17 races. In his most recent start in April, Bowman finished a solid fifth.

That’s where we think he’ll run on Sunday, and we recommend a bet on Bowman to finish in the top five at +400 via BetMGM.

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Ryan Blaney Is Looking Strong in Defense of His NASCAR Cup Title

The opening race in the NASCAR Cup Playoffs’ Round of 12 wasn’t a problem-free affair for defending series champion Ryan Blaney.

In fact, the driver of the No. 12 Team Penske Ford had to overcome a loose wheel (and an unscheduled pit stop to remedy the problem) to finish fourth last Sunday.

Though Blaney was disappointed with the result in what he felt was a race-winning car, the top-five run nevertheless highlighted the resilience of the entire No. 12 team.

We expect Blaney to bring that momentum to Talladega, where he has posted three victories in 20 starts. Before this season’s spring race (where he finished 20th after an accident), Blaney had two seconds and a win in his previous three starts at the 2.66-mile track.

Blaney is masterful on drafting tracks, where outcomes are most difficult to predict because of the close-quarters pack racing. We think he’ll triumph on Sunday at +1000 via BetMGM and earn a ticket to the Round of 8.

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How to Watch the YellaWood 500

• What: YellaWood 500 NASCAR Cup Series race

• Where: Talladega Superspeedway

• When: Sunday, October 6, 2 p.m. ET

• How to Watch: NBC