The LiUNA! Predictions: Austin Hill Needs to Rebound from Mistake

• Aric Almirola is back for more, but his record at Las Vegas isn’t stellar.

• Justin Allgaier has everything except a win at the 1.5-mile track in Sin City.

• Austin Hill expects to rally from last weekend’s bad mistake at Phoenix.

The LiUNA! Betting Odds

Odds taken from bet365 sportsbook. Use our promo code WSN365 and place your bets at bet365: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets Win or Lose.

Our Picks for The LiUNA!

• Austin Hill to win the race at +800 at bet365

• Justin Allgaier to beat Aric Almirola head-to-head at -115 at bet365

The Liuna! Predictions

Aric Almirola Is Likely to Outrun His Mediocre Record at Las Vegas

Frankly speaking, we were wrong about Aric Almirola last Saturday at Phoenix Raceway—even though we were right about Justin Allgaier until the final moments.

Allgaier, our pick to win, had the race in hand was just over two laps away from victory until an inopportune caution forced overtime.

Almirola took full advantage and made a last-lap pass of Alex Bowman for the victory as Allgaier faded to fifth.

Almirola will make his third NASCAR Xfinity Series start of the season in the No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota in Saturday’s The Liuna! at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.

The part-time driver already has a third-place finish and a victory to his credit this season, but he has yet to score a top 10 in six starts at Las Vegas.

Though we expect Almirola to break that drought this weekend, we don’t expect him to win at +300 via bet365 Sportsbook. Give his record and those meager odds, we’ll pass.

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Hard-Luck Justin Allgaier Has Everything at Las Vegas But a Victory

Justin Allgaier’s statistics at Las Vegas Motor Speedway are staggering.

The reigning Xfinity Series champion has more runner-up finishes (4), more top fives (11), more stage wins (3) and more laps led (330) than the rest of Saturday’s field combined.

What Allgaier doesn’t have is a victory at the 1.5-mile intermediate track.

Though Allgaier enters Saturday’s race as co-favorite with Aric Almirola at +300 via bet365, we don’t think he’ll break the jinx this weekend.

Based on his record, however, we do think he’ll beat Almirola head-to-head at -115 via bet365.

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Austin Hill Hopes to Rebound from Major Blunder at Phoenix Raceway

We expected Austin Hill to finish in the top five last Saturday at Phoenix, and he appeared poised to do so until Lap 61.

That’s when Hill misjudged his proximity to the inside wall in Turn 3, bounced off the barrier and collected the cars of Sheldon Creed and Dean Thompson.

Eliminated from the race in 37th place, Hill lost the series lead to Richard Childress Racing teammate Jesse Love.

“I was right behind the No. 8 (Sammy Smith) and just messed up,” Hill said ruefully. “I misjudged the inside wall, and that may be the dumbest move I’ve had happen to me in racing…

“We’ll rebuild for Las Vegas and try to have a good outcome there.”

Hill is the only former Las Vegas winner in the field for The Liuna!, having triumphed in this race in 2023.

With something to prove on Saturday, we expect to see him in Victory Lane at a generous +800 via bet365.

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How to Watch The Liuna!

• Race: The Liuna! NASCAR Xfinity Series race

• Location: Las Vegas Motor Speedway

• Time: Saturday, March 15, 4:30 p.m. ET

• How to Watch: The CW