SciAps 300 Predictions: Kyle Larson Crashes the Party

• In search of elusive weekend sweep, Kyle Larson does triple duty at Bristol.

• Austin Hill is a reliable long-shot selection at any NASCAR Xfinity race track.

• Based on statistics, Justin Allgaier ought to be the odds-on choice on Saturday.

SciAps 300 Betting Odds

Odds taken from bet365 Sportsbook. Use our promo code WSN365 and claim $150 in bonus bets with a $5 wager, regardless of the bet outcome.

My Picks for the SciAps 300

• Justin Allgaier to win the race at +350 via bet365

• Austin Hill to finish in the top three at +500 via bet365

SciAps 300 Predictions

Seeking Weekend Triple, Kyle Larson Is a Major Threat at Thunder Valley

If at first you don’t succeed…

In line with the second part of that platitude, Kyle Larson is trying again—to sweep races in all three of NASCAR’s national series at the same track on the same weekend, that is.

He came close three weeks ago at Homestead-Miami Speedway, where he won the CRAFTSMAN Truck Series race and the Cup race but was stymied by a late restart in the Xfinity event.

Larson is attempting to duplicate what Kyle Busch accomplished at Bristol in 2010 and 2017. No other driver has achieved the feat at any track.

With one Xfinity Series win at Thunder Valley, Larson is one of two drivers in Saturday’s field who has scored a victory at the track, but that’s not enough to convince us to back him at -150 via bet365 Sportsbook.

First, the return on investment is minuscule. Second, Larson isn’t that much better than the top Xfinity regulars he’s racing against.

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Reliable Austin Hill Is an Excellent Pick for a Podium Finish at Bristol

On more than one occasion this season, Austin Hill has been our saving grace, most recently at Martinsville, where he won the race when we recommended a top-five bet at a nice price.

Perhaps because of his unquestioned prowess on superspeedways, oddsmakers consistently undervalue the driver of the No. 21 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet at other tracks.

We don’t. Hill grew up racing on short tracks in the Southeast, and we consider him a threat anywhere he races, based on talent, aggression and experience. Remember, he just won at Martinsville, the shortest of NASCAR’s short tracks.

Admittedly, Hill’s record at Bristol is neither extensive nor exceptional. He has one third-place finish in three starts there and one DNF (did not finish) because of a crash.

But we’ve seen Hill mature this year, and we expect him to finish in the top three on Saturday at +500 via bet365.

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Justin Allgaier Has the Stats to Justify His Selection to Win on Saturday

Where Kyle Larson has one victory at Bristol, Justin Allgaier has two—but that’s just the tip of the iceberg.

Allgaier has led at least 60 laps in each of the last eight races at the 0.533-mile short track. He has led the most laps in five of the last six.

Allgaier is off to the best early-season start of his career with two victories and six top 10s in the first eight races, tied for most in the series.

In addition, Allgaier is the only Xfinity driver to finish on the lead lap in every race this year.

Give the choice between Larson at -150 and Allgaier at +350 (bet365), we’ll take Allgaier. After all, when Larson and Allgaier went head-to-head at Homestead in Larson’s only Xfinity start sp far this season, it was Allgaier who took the checkered flag.

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How to Watch the SciAps 300

• Race: SciAps 300 NASCAR Xfinity Series race

• Location: Bristol Motor Speedway

• Time: Saturday, April 12, 5 p.m. ET

• How to Watch: The CW