NASCAR Hard Rock Bet 300 Predictions: It Doesn’t Pay to Bet the Favorite

• Kyle Larson is the odds-on choice, but the reward doesn’t justify the risk.

• Austin Hill is a former winner at the track, and he’s due for a decent run.

• Sam Mayer has been running near the front on a consistent basis this season.

Hard Rock Bet 300 Betting Odds

Odds taken from bet365 sportsbook. Use our promo code WSN365 and place your bets at bet365: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets Win or Lose

Our Picks for the Hard Rock Bet 300

• Sam Mayer to win the race at +1200 via bet365

Hard Rock Bet 300 Predictions

Kyle Larson is Clear Favorite, But Reward Isn’t Worth the Risk

How convinced are oddsmakers that Kyle Larson will win Saturday’s NASCAR Xfinity Series race at Homestead-Miami Speedway?

Larson is priced at -150 at bet365 Sportsbook, considerably worse than even odds for an event that features a starting field of 38 drivers.

True, Larson is expert at running the top of the track, often the fastest way around the aging 1.5-mile speedway.

And true, Larson will have plenty of seat time heading into Saturday’s race, given that he’ll also be running the Truck Series event on Friday.

Problem is, we can’t risk our money on a driver who pays so little to win, especially one who hasn’t driven an Xfinity car at Homestead since 2016. Hence, we’ll look elsewhere for a better price.

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Former Homestead Winner Austin Hill is Likely to Be a Contender

Austin Hill has a victory and two other top fives in five NASCAR Xfinity starts this season. He’s currently fourth in the series standings.

Hill is always a threat when the Xfinity cars compete on a 1.5-mile intermediate speedway. That’s certainly true at Homestead, where Hill is the defending winner of the Hard Rock Bet 300.

Given Kyle Larson’s status as the prohibitive favorite, Hill is attractively priced at +900 via bet365, and we expect him to be a contender on Saturday.

Though Hill may do well, we have a driver we think is a better choice at a better price.

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Consistent Sam Mayer is Poised for Victory After Strong Start to Season

A change of teams certainly hasn’t diminished Sam Mayer’s performance in the NASCAR Xfinity Series this season.

Aside from a crash and resulting DNF (did not finish) in the unpredictable race at Atlanta Motor Speedway in late February, Mayer has finished no worse than seventh for his new Haas Factory Team effort this season.

His record this year includes a runner-up finish in the season opener at Daytona, a third on the road course at Circuit of the Americas and a fifth last week at Las Vegas.

Mayer currently is third in the Xfinity standings, having shown speed at a wide variety of race tracks.

Discounting Kyle Larson because of the meager odds, we think Mayer is the best choice to win on Saturday as the best combination of potential and price.

He’s available at +1200 via bet365, and we think that’s a solid bet.

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How to Watch the Hard Rock Bet 300

• Race: Hard Rock Bet 300 NASCAR Xfinity Series race

• Location: Homestead-Miami Speedway

• Time: Saturday, March 22, 4 p.m. ET

• How to Watch: The CW