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GOVX 200 Predictions: Is it Time for Justin Allgaier to Assert Himself?

Published: Mar. 7, 2025, 05:39 AM ET
4 min read
  • Super part-timer Aric Almirola returns to the No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota.

  • Sheldon Creed and Austin Hill are both sleeper picks for this race.

  • Justin Allgaier is back at the track that gave him the Xfinity title last year.

GOVX 200 Betting Odds

Odds taken from bet365 sportsbook. Use our promo code WSN365 and place your bets at bet365: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets Win or Lose.

Driver Odds
Justin Allgaier +375
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Aric Almirola +400
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Alex Bowman +450
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Jesse Love +800
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Sheldon Creed +1000
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Sam Mayer +1000
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Sammy Smith +1100
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Connor Zilisch +1200
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Carson Kvapil +1200
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Taylor Gray +1400
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Austin Hill +2000
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My Picks for the GOVX 200

How We Rate
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4.6/5

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GOVX 200 Predictions Odds

GOVX 200 Predictions

Does Aric Almirola Pose a Threat in the No. 19 Joe Gibbs Toyota?

Apparently, oddsmakers have taken a “What have you done for me lately?” attitude where Aric Almirola is concerned.

The part-time driver of the No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota returns to the seat for this weekend’s for Saturday’s GOVX 200 NASCAR Xfinity Series race at Phoenix Raceway.

In his last appearance at the one-mile track in the Sonoran Desert, Almirola finished third in last year’s season finale.

That result and the inherent speed in the Gibbs cars account for Almirola’s status as second choice at +400 via bet365 Sportsbook.

Looking at Almirola’s entire record, however, we’re not inclined to back him to win. In nine Xfinity starts at Phoenix, Almirola has posted an average finish of 17.2, and last year’s podium result is his only top five at the track.

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Former Teammates Austin Hill and Sheldon Creed Are Sleepers

Austin Hill, a titan on superspeedways, is determined to prove this year that he can win on any venue.

Last Saturday, on the road course at Circuit of the Americas, Hill led six laps before finishing fourth.

At Phoenix, Hill has placed in the top 10 in his last five starts, including a fourth-place result in this race last year.

Hence, we like the driver of the No. 21 Richard Childress Racing to finish in the top five at +300 via bet365.

Similarly, we like Hill’s former RCR teammate Sheldon Creed—now driving for Haas Factory Team—to finish in the top three at +300 (bet365).

Creed has finished third twice and second once in his last three starts at Phoenix Raceway.

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Justin Allgaier Returns to the Scene of His Greatest Racing Triumph

Last fall at Phoenix Raceway, Justin Allgaier rallied for a second-place finish in the season finale and claimed the NASCAR Xfinity Series title that had eluded him for 13 seasons.

The 38-year-old veteran from Riverton, Illinois, has an excellent record at Phoenix, with two victories, 11 top fives and 19 top 10s in 29 starts at the one-mile flat track.

His average finish at Phoenix is an admirable 7.2. In this race last year, Allgaier dominated, leading 52 laps, but was KO’d by a blown tire late in the race.

This year, we expect him to eliminate the negatives and win the race at +375 via bet365.

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How to Watch the GOVX 200

  • Race: GOVX 200 NASCAR Xfinity Series race

  • Location: Phoenix Raceway

  • Time: Saturday, March 8, 5 p.m. ET

  • How to Watch: The CW

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Reid Spencer

Reid Spencer

NASCAR Betting Analyst

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NASCAR
Betting Analyst
Award-winning motorsports writer Reid Spencer has served as lead writer for the NASCAR Wire Service for 16 years, having also spent a four-year stint as NASCAR columnist and beat writer for Sporting News. He is currently serving as president of the National Motorsports Press Association.
Email: [email protected]
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