Food City 500 Predictions, Picks, Odds (Cup Series)
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Food City 500 Predictions: A Couple of Triples on the Line

Updated: Apr. 11, 2025, 07:35 AM ET
4 min read
  • For the second time this season, Kyle Larson will be trying for a weekend sweep.

  • Ryan Blaney looks to build on last week’s top-five result at Darlington Raceway.

  • Denny Hamlin can match teammate Christopher Bell with a third straight win.

Food City 500 Betting Odds

Odds taken from bet365 Sportsbook. Use our promo code WSN365 and claim $150 in bonus bets with a $5 wager, regardless of the bet outcome.

DriverOdds
Kyle Larson+425
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Denny Hamlin+425
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Christopher Bell+425
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Ryan Blaney+800
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Chase Elliott+800
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William Byron+1200
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Chase Briscoe+1800
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Ty Gibbs+1800
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Ross Chastain+2000
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Ryan Preece+2000
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Chris Buescher+2000
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My Picks for the Food City 500

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Food City 500 Predictions Odds Picks

Food City 500 Predictions

Will Kyle Larson’s Quest for a “Triple” Be a Help or a Hindrance?

In last September’s Bristol Night Race, Kyle Larson led 462 of 500 laps, the most ever led in a single NASCAR Cup Series event by a Hendrick Motorsports driver.

It should come as no surprise that Larson picked up his second Bristol win in that race.

Larson’s stats at the high-banked concrete short track are intimidating. He has finished in the top 10 in in 10 of the last 11 races there.

Since joining Hendrick Motorsports in 2021, he has finished in the top five in all five starts.

However, there may be extraneous factors affecting Larson’s efforts this weekend. He’s trying for a weekend sweep of all three national series, and if he succeeds in the CRAFTSMAN Truck and Xfinity events on Friday and Saturday, he’ll face the added pressure of trying to complete the triple on Sunday—and so will his new pit crew.

We can’t say Larson isn’t a good choice at +425 via bet365 Sportsbook, but we’re looking at another possible triple that could trump Larson’s efforts.

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Ryan Blaney Can Build on a Top-Five Run at Darlington Raceway

Ryan Blaney has been highly successful at accumulating stage points this season. Finishing races, however, hasn’t been his forte.

Blaney ranks second in the NASCAR Cup Series in stage points earned with 86, but that represents a whopping 36 percent of his total points this season, thanks to three DNFs (did not finish) in eight races.

Blaney finally righted the ship last Sunday at Darlington, where he finished fifth after a late caution took away an almost certain win.

Overall, the driver of the No. 12 Team Penske Ford has shown exceptional speed this season, but his performance at Bristol has been spotty.

Blaney has never won a Cup race at the track and has scored just two top fives in 16 starts. Because of the speed in his car, however, he could be a contender on Sunday.

We’re just not sufficiently convinced to back him at +800 via bet365.

Pro tip: Blaney does have a pole at Bristol, and seven of the last eight winners at the track have come from top-five starting positions.

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Defending Winner Denny Hamlin Looks to Extend His Winning Streak

Last Sunday at Darlington Raceway, Denny Hamlin came through for us, but it took a late caution and a lightning-fast pit stop on the part of his crew to allow him to claim the trophy.

The victory was Hamlin’s second straight, and it set up the possibility that he’ll equal the three-race winning streak fashion by his Joe Gibbs Racing teammate, Christopher Bell, earlier this season.

Hamlin is the defending winner of the Food City 500. Among full-time active drivers, his four wins at Thunder Valley are second only to Kyle Busch’s eight.

Hamlin also leads all active drivers with four pole positions at the 0.533-mile short track, and as noted above, starting position can be critical to success at Thunder Valley.

Accordingly, we’ll give Hamlin a slight edge over co-favorite Kyle Larson at +425 via bet365.

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How to Watch the Food City 500

  • What: Food City 500 NASCAR Cup Series race

  • Where: Bristol Motor Speedway

  • When: Sunday, April 13, 3 p.m. ET

  • How to Watch: FS1

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Reid Spencer

Reid Spencer

NASCAR Betting Analyst

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Award-winning motorsports writer Reid Spencer has served as lead writer for the NASCAR Wire Service for 16 years, having also spent a four-year stint as NASCAR columnist and beat writer for Sporting News. He is currently serving as president of the National Motorsports Press Association.
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