FireKeepers Casino 400 Predictions: Back to the Big Two-Mile Track

• Is it reasonable to pick against a Ford driver on Sunday at Michigan?

• Indianapolis winner Kyle Larson has plenty of speed on the big tracks.

• If a Pocono victory is predictive of a win at Michigan, we like Ryan Blaney.

FireKeepers Casino 400 Betting Odds

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FireKeepers Casino 400 Picks

• Ryan Blaney to win the race at +800 via BetMGM

• Joey Logano to finish in the top three at +450 via BetMGM

• Ross Chastain to beat Martin Truex Jr. head-to-head at +145 via BetMGM

FireKeepers Casino 400 Predictions

Does It Make Sense to Bet Against Ford Drivers at Michigan Speedway?

It struck us as odd that the favorite to win Sunday’s FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan International Speedway is Denny Hamlin—a Toyota driver (+550 via BetMGM).

The thing is, Hamlin has never won at the 2.0-mile track. Second, the last Toyota driver to win in the backyard of the United States auto industry was Matt Kenseth in 2015. That was Toyota’s only victory in the last 21 races at Michigan.

On the other hand, the last nine winners at the track Roger Penske built were all driving Fords. It’s true that Kevin Harvick, who won five of the last eight races at Michigan, has since retired, but Joey Logano, Ryan Blaney, and Chris Buescher are current Ford drivers with at least one recent victory at the track.

We think Ford drivers will continue their dominance and win a 10th straight race. But which one?

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Fresh from Indy Victory, Kyle Larson Is Certain to Bring Speed on Sunday

Before Ford began its streak of nine straight, the previous three victories belonged to Chevrolet driver Kyle Larson—all with Chip Ganassi Racing in 2016-2017.

Obviously, Larson hasn’t won at Michigan since signing with Hendrick Motorsports in 2021, but he just won at another big track—Indianapolis Motor Speedway on July 21—to notch his series-best fourth victory of the season.

There’s no doubt Larson will bring comparable speed to Sunday’s race at Michigan. If you’re a Chevrolet aficionado, he’s the best bet on the board at +600 via BetMGM.

But as we noted above, we think a Ford will take the checkered flag.

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Ryan Blaney Prepared to Parlay Pocono Win into Victory in Irish Hills

A week before NASCAR took a break while NBC televised the Paris Olympics, Ryan Blaney went to Victory Lane at Pocono Raceway, leading a race-high 44 of 160 laps and beating Denny Hamlin to the finish line by 1.312 seconds.

The win at the triangular track was Blaney’s second of the season. A week later, the reigning NASCAR Cup Series champion was fast again, finishing third behind Kyle Larson and Tyler Reddick at Indianapolis.

The bottom line? Blaney has shown excellent speed of the bigger tracks in recent weeks, and speed is what you need at Michigan, where you can sometimes complete a lap without cracking the throttle.

We think Blaney’s No. 12 Team Penske Ford will roll into Victory Lane on Sunday at the 2.0-mile track, extending Ford’s winning streak there to 10 races. Blaney is offered at a generous +800 via BetMGM, and we like his prospects of cashing. 

We also like Blaney’s teammate, three-time Michigan winner Joey Logano, to finish in the top three at +450 via BetMGM.

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How to Watch the FireKeepers Casino 400

• What: FireKeepers Casino 400 NASCAR Cup Series Race

• Where: Michigan International Speedway

• When: Sunday, August 18, 2:30 p.m. ET

• How to Watch: USA