Drydene 200 (Xfinity Series) Predictions, Odds & Picks

• Justin Allgaier is the only former winner in the Xfinity Series field at Dover.
• Noah Gragson goes for sweep of Dash 4 Cash events after reinstatement.
• Look to the top eight on the grid for your Dover Xfinity winner this weekend.

The NASCAR Xfinity Series heads for Dover International Speedway for a weekend doubleheader with the NASCAR Cup Series.

The one-mile concrete Monster Mile is one of NASCAR’s most physically demanding tracks, with a two-story drop entering the corners and a sense of speed unlike anywhere else.

Saturday’s Drydene 200, the 10th event on the Xfinity Series schedule, will feature 200 laps (200 miles), with stage breaks planned after 45 and 90 laps.

Justin Allgaier is the defending winner of the race. Justin Haley has been sidelined under NASCAR’s COVID-19 protocols. Zane Smith will replace him in the No. 11 Chevrolet.

How to Watch Drydene 200

Justin Allgaier Is Co-Favorite at Dover, But the JRM Driver Should Stand Alone

At difficult race tracks, it’s smart to go with veteran drivers, and there’s a no better veteran on the board this week than Justin Allgaier, driver of the No. 7 JR Motorsports Chevrolet.

Allgaier is fresh from a victory at challenging Darlington Raceway. His first victory of the season came at Atlanta Motor Speedway, known for its abrasive, degraded asphalt.

Allgaier is the defending winner of Saturday’s Drydene 200, having claimed victory in the first leg of last year’s COVID-gerrymandered Dover doubleheader.

In fact, the 34-year-old from Riverton, Illinois, is a two-time winner at the Monster Mile, and he’s the only former Dover winner in the field for Saturday’s race.

Despite starting second in the Drydene 200, Allgaier (+360 according to PointsBet Sportsbook) has to share favorite honors with Austin Cindric, who starts 16th and is coming off a 30th-place finish at Darlington.

Under the circumstances, we’ll go with Allgaier, who boasts a series-best 16 lead-lap finishes at Dover, to win his second straight Xfinity Series race.

After Wild and Crazy Week, Noah Gragson Goes for Dash 4 Cash Sweep

For roughly two hours last Saturday, Noah Gragson thought he was $100,000 richer. His fourth-place finish at Darlington was good enough to win a third straight Xfinity Dash 4 Cash bonus.

In post-race inspection, however, Gragson’s No. 9 JR Motorsports Chevrolet was disqualified for a suspension infraction, costing Gragson the bonus.

JRM appealed the penalty, and on Wednesday afternoon the disqualification was rescinded, and Gragson’s finishing position and $100,000 Dash 4 Cash payoff were reinstated.

So Gragson is now eligible to compete for the final Dash 4 Cash bonus at Dover. To sweep the series, he’ll have to finish higher than Justin Allgaier, Brandon Jones and Josh Berry.

But Gragson (+725) also is worth considering for a bet to win. In five starts at the Monster Mile, he has four finishes of seventh or better, including fourth and sixth in last year’s doubleheader.

To Find the Dover Winner, Look No Further than the Top Eight Starters

In the last 22 NASCAR Xfinity Series events at Dover International Speedway, dating to 2010, all eventual winners have come from the top eight on the starting grid.

The most prolific starting spot at producing winners over that span is second (five times in 22 races). That’s where Justin Allgaier starts on Saturday afternoon.

The position that has produced the second most winners (four) is the pole. Daniel Hemric (+900) starts there in the Drydene 200, but the driver of the No. 18 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota has never won a NASCAR national series race.

Interestingly, no driver has won from the seventh position on the grid in the last 22 races, but AJ Allmendinger (+725) starts there at one of his best tracks and may be worth a bet.

Co-favorite Austin Cindric (+360) will take the green flag from the 16th position and would have to break a streak of top-eight starters/winners more than a decade long.

That’s not likely. Cindric has never won at Dover (though he was third and second last year), and 16th is his career-worst starting position there.