Brickyard 400 Predictions: A Race of Variables Galore

• It pays to figure out who’s fast and who’s not before time trials on Saturday.

• Brad Keselowski may be a sleeper pick in the return to the Indy oval.

• Denny Hamlin can complete the NASCAR Grand Slam with a win at Indy.

Brickyard 400 Betting Odds

Odds taken from BetMGM Sportsbook. Head over to BetMGM to place your bets and get up to $1,500 in bonus bets paid back!*
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Our Picks for the Brickyard 400

• Denny Hamlin to win the race at (+400) via BetMGM

• Brad Keselowski to finish highest among Ford drivers at (+210) via BetMGM

• Martin Truex Jr. to beat Ryan Blaney head-to-head at (+115) via BetMGM

Brickyard 400 Predictions

In Return to the Indy Oval, Qualifying Will Still Be a Critical Factor

For the first time since 2020, NASCAR Cup Series drivers will race on the 2.5-mile oval at Indianapolis Motor Speedway - after three years om the Indy Grand Prix road course.

That means that NASCAR’s Gen 7 race car, introduced into the Cup Series in 2022, will race on the “big track” for the first time.

In addition, Goodyear is providing new tire codes for Sunday’s race, with a softer compound on the right side for additional grip and thicker tread on both sides.

One thing that should remain constant is the need for qualifying speed. In 27 Cup races on the Indy oval, 17 winners have started from the top nine grid positions, five from the pole.

So pay close attention to practice on Friday and time trials on Saturday and put your money on the cars with speed.

Bet on NASCAR Cup Series at BetMGM

Brad Keselowski Could Be an Excellent Sleeper Pick on Sunday

There are only three drivers in the field for Sunday’s Brickyard 400 who have won races on the Indianapolis oval - Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch and Brad Keselowski.

Johnson is making an occasional start and likely won’t be a factor on Sunday. Busch is suffering though a miserable season where everything that could go wrong has done so.

Keselowski, on the other hand, has a victory at Darlington to his credit this season and has shown speed on more than a few occasions. In 11 starts at the oval, Keselowski has three top fives and six top 10s on his resume.

While we’re not picking Kez to win the race, we like Brad Keselowski to finish first among Ford drivers at (+210) via BetMGM.

Bet on Brad Keselowski (+210) at BetMGM

Denny Hamlin Can Add a Significant Milestone to His NASCAR Legacy

We picked Denny Hamlin to end a five-race skid last Sunday at Pocono, and he came close in a runner-up finish to race winner Ryan Blaney.

That won’t deter us from picking Hamlin to win Sunday’s Brickyard 400. Here’s why: In 15 starts on the big track, Hamlin has scored five top fives, eight top 10s and a pole. So his cars are fast there.

Hamlin also has extra motivation. With career victories in the Daytona 500, Coca-Cola 600 and Southern 500, Hamlin is the only driver in the field who can complete a sweep of the four NASCAR Cup crown-jewel races.

His crew chief, Chris Gabehart, is pouring all the resources at his disposal into winning this race. Gabehart grew up in Lafayette, Indiana, and earned a mechanical engineering degree from Indian-based Purdue University. There’s no race he wants to win more.

We’d like to get a better price than (+400) at BetMGM, but we’re still picking Hamlin to win on Sunday.

Bet on Denny Hamlin (+400) at BetMGM

How to Watch the Brickyard 400

• What: Brickyard 400 NASCAR Cup Series Race

• Where: Indianapolis Motor Speedway

• When: Sunday, July 21, 2:30 p.m. ET

• How to Watch: NBC