Ally 400 Predictions: Can Ross Chastain Repeat on “Home” Track?

• Pay close attention to qualifying at Nashville - starting up front is critical.

• Is Ross Chastain’s car good enough for a repeat performance on Sunday?

• Kyle Larson should be able to lead a Chevrolet stampede at Nashville.

Ally 400 Betting Odds

Odds taken from BetMGM. Head over to BetMGM to place your bets and get up to $1,500 in bonus bets paid back!*
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Our Picks for the Ally 400

• Kyle Larson to win the race at (+425) at BetMGM

• Chase Elliott to finish in the top three at (+260) at BetMGM

• William Byron to finish in the top three at (+275) at BetMGM

Pay Close Attention to Qualifying on Saturday Because It’s Crucial 

Though the sample size is small, the qualifying data at Nashville Superspeedway is significant enough to suggest that starting position bears a strong correlation to finishing position at the 1.33-mile track.

In all three NASCAR Cup Series races held at the concrete track, the race winner has started from a grid position of fifth or better. Kyle Larson started fifth in 2021, Chase Elliott from fourth in 2022, and Ross Chastain won from the pole position last year.

Rather than wait for Saturday’s qualifying session to make your selections, however, try to divine which drivers are likely to have excellent qualifying speed before time trials change the odds.

Here’s a hint: Chevrolet drivers have won all three Cup races at Nashville.

Does Ross Chastain Have a Good Enough Car to Go Back-to-Back?

As we noted, Ross Chastain won last year’s Cup race at Nashville Superspeedway from the pole. The question here is whether the driver of the No. 1 Trackhouse Racing Chevy can repeat at the 1.33-mile track.

Chastain certainly could use a victory. He’s winless so far this season, and though he’s in a comfortable position as far as the Playoffs go, he has only one stage win this season and the one Playoff point that goes with it.

Chastain will need substantially more than that if he hopes to be a realistic title contender. Trackhouse Entertainment Group, parent company of the race team, is headquartered in Nashville, so this is a home game of sorts for the former watermelon farmer from Florida.

We’re just not convinced Chastain’s cars have the same performance capability as the ones that carried him to two victories last year, when Chastain scored 10 top fives in 36 races.

This season, he has but two top fives through 18 races, and that’s a strong enough reason not to back Ross Chastain at (+850) via BetMGM.

Bet on Ross Chastain (+850) at BetMGM

At Nashville, Kyle Larson Should Be Back at the Front of the Pack

Last week at New Hampshire, we steered you away from Chevrolet drivers in general and Hendrick Motorsports drivers specifically. Check.

We also told you Christopher Bell would win the race. Right again.

This week, however, we’re doing a 180 and picking Kyle Larson to return to form and win the Ally 400 at Nashville Superspeedway. In 2021, Larson won the inaugural Cup event at the track.

His three starts at the concrete speedway have resulted in finishes of first, fourth and fifth, and he’s likely to show excellent speed in qualifying.

Hence, Larson is our favorite to win the race at (+425) via BetMGM. In fact, we think Larson and Hendrick teammates Chase Elliott and William Byron could sweep the podium on Sunday.

Chase Elliott to finish in the top three (+260) via BetMGM, won the 2022 Nashville race, and William Byron for a top-three (+275) at BetMGM has a third and sixth in three starts at the track.

Bet on Kyle Larson (+425) at BetMGM

How to Watch the Ally 400

• What: Ally 400 NASCAR Cup Series Race

• Where: Nashville Superspeedway

• When: Sunday, June 23, 3:30 p.m. ET

• How to Watch: NBC