St. Louis City vs Inter Miami Predictions
These two sides couldn’t have had more different seasons. St. Louis City have taken to the MLS like a duck to water, whereas Inter Miami have still not found their footing in the MLS. There’s this assumption in soccer that it takes a while for new teams to get used to the league, but St Louis City have made a mockery of this notion.
Inter Miami, on the other hand, have been using this assumption as an excuse for their failings since joining the league. Despite Inter Miami’s awful start to the campaign, they’re also responsible for creating arguably the biggest moment in MLS history this season: the signing of Lionel Messi.
Messi won’t be available for this game, nor will his former teammate, Sergio Busquets, so there’s not much to suggest Inter Miami will get anything out of this game. That could change later in the season, but for now, we suggest going with St. Louis City SC for the win.
Previous Meetings
The two sides have never faced each other in a league game, but they butted heads in a pre-season game earlier in the season. St. Louis City SC won the match 4-0, which will certainly be playing in the minds of both sides before the match; the one-sided nature of this encounter will make it hard for either side to forget the game easily.
If there weren’t enough factors going in favor of St. Louis City SC heading into this game, this certainly clears up why they should win this tie. It also wouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone if the match ends with a similar score.
St. Louis City Continue Good Form With 1-0 Win Against Toronto FC
St. Louis City SC earned their 12th win of the season thanks to Aziel Jackson’s 50th-minute strike. They have a big game against defending champions LAFC before the match against Inter Miami, but they should most likely come into the match against Miami as the Western Conference leaders.
It was a pretty solid performance from St. Louis despite having just 37% of the possession; they took 17 shots to Toronto’s 12, with six on target to Toronto’s three. Another goal would’ve eased the nerves, but three points is all that matters in the end.
Some Good Fortune in St. Louis City’s Rise
St. Louis City SC are three points ahead of Seattle Sounders, with a game to spare, and five points ahead of LAFC, who they face this week; their lead is pretty secure. However, the underlying numbers suggest that they’ve been quite fortunate to sit on top of the table, as their expected goals difference is just the fifth-best in the league. In fact, it’s a negative number (-0.3), which means that they were expected to score fewer goals than conceded.
This is a pretty remarkable stat, as it suggests that St. Louis City SC have overperformed quite a lot. For comparison’s sake, Seattle Sounders have an expected goal difference of +13.5. St. Louis City have a goal difference of +16, and one man has been instrumental with regard to this: Roman Burki.
The former Dortmund goalkeeper has been outstanding this season. A lot of attention is drawn towards outfield players in soccer, and rightly so, but there are instances where a goalkeeper’s contributions are so significant that it’s hard to look away: Burki’s performances are one instance where the attention is warranted.
He has been phenomenal this season and the main reason why St. Louis City SC are on top of the Western Conference table. Burki has a ridiculous post-shot expected goal per 90 value of 0.32, which basically means that he saves at least 0.3 shots that are expected to be goals per game. His performances have demonstrated just how important it is to have a top goalkeeper on your side. His saves don’t take into account his overall game. He starts many of St Louis’ attacks, claims crosses into the box, and sweeps up opposition attacks as well.
Inter Miami Draw Second Match in a Row
Inter Miami succumbed to another draw against DC United over the weekend. This was their second draw on the bounce after drawing 1-1 against Columbus Crew in the previous game week. The game against DC United was tightly fought, with Miami taking the lead in the 59th minute before, but their lead didn’t last long as Taxiarchis Fountas’ 65th-minute leveler followed Benjamin Cremaschi’s opener.
Inter Miami went ahead three minutes later through Noah Allen, but they couldn't hold on as Nigel Robertha put DC United level for the second time in the match. Inter Miami had 54% of the possession but took fewer shots on goal than DC United, so the draw was a fair result. This was one of Inter Miami’s better performances of the season as getting an away point is never easy in the MLS.
Busquets and Messi to Join Later This Month
Sergio Busquets and Lionel Messi are set to make their club debut on June 21st against Cruz Azul in a new competition called the Leagues Cup. They won’t be available for the match against St Louis City SC, so Inter Miami will most likely remain last on the Eastern Conference table before they kick a ball for their new clubs.
Inter Miami are currently seven points off of the playoff spots, with 13 league games to go. Inter Miami are leaving it late, but there’s enough time there for Busquets and Messi to push Inter Miami into the playoffs.
Inter Miami are in a strange place right now: they’re last on the league table, but any odds table that isn’t putting them as the outright odds favorites clearly has no idea just how massive just how seismic these transfers are for Inter Miami.
Sergio Busquets will change the entire complexion of the team at the base of midfield, and Lionel Messi will give them supreme quality upfront. The minute they step onto the field, the title will be Inter Miami’s to lose.
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