FC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution Predictions
This is one of the best games of the weekend. There’s always a buzz when the top two sides in a conference face one another, but there’s a good chance this will end up a pretty one-sided affair, FC Cincinnati have been the best team in the MLS this season by a mile – this is reflected in their seven-point lead over New England Revolution.
They’re playing this match at home, which gives them another significant advantage over New England. Additionally, they’ve got pretty valuable odds for a team that’s favored to win a match, so there should be no reason why you don’t pick them for this match. New England are a top side; they’ve lost just three matches all season and have a similar goal difference, but we think home advantage is going to be a factor in this match.
Previous Meetings
FC Cincinnati are one of the newer franchises in the league, so it shouldn’t surprise anyone that they don’t have a good head-to-head record against most teams. The New England Revolution have won five, drawn three, and lost two of the head-to-head meetings.
When the two sides met each other in April this year, the match ended as a 1-1 draw. Yerson Masquera put FC Cincinnati ahead in the 31st before Emmanuel Boateng leveled the scores just before the half-time whistle. There wasn’t a lot between the two sides; the draw was a fair result. New England took 13 shots to FC Cincinnati’s 10 and had 56% of the possession – this slight edge in the numbers is to be expected of the home side.
Ultimately, the game felt quite even, and New England did well to recover after making a slow start to the same. At the time, we couldn’t say for certain if FC Cincinnati were the real deal, but it’s much clearer now that they are.
FC Cincinnati Crumble Against DC United
FC Cincinnati had one of their worst evenings of the season over the weekend against DC United – it was bad from start to finish. Pedro Santos gave DC United the lead in the 10th minute before Derrick Williams made it 2-0 seven minutes later. Cristian Dajome added another before half time to make it 3-0.
It was one of the most shocking halves of the season, and FC Cincinnati had no answer in the second half. In fact, things got worse, as Ian Murphy got sent off in the 79th minute. The match ended 3-0 to DC United. It was a bad day for everyone in FC Cincinnati, but they have to ensure that this was a one-off.
Statistically, there wasn’t much between the sides: both teams took 17 shots on goal, and FC Cincinnati had 57% of the possession, but this doesn’t take into account how paralyzed FC Cincinnati were for most of the first half. This was undoubtedly one of the shocks of the season and a much-needed reminder that there are no easy games in the MLS.
FC Cincinnati Have Been a Bit Fortunate Defensively All Season
As good as FC Cincinnati have been going forward this season, the underlying numbers suggest that they’ve been extremely fortunate to concede just 19 goals all season. In fact, their expected goals against value is only the eight-best in the league, even though they’ve conceded the third-lowest number of goals in the league.
It could be that their attack is helping them kill games off a bit early, but the best teams tend to control games even after going up a few goals. This isn’t just the case in European football but also in the MLS. LAFC were the best side last season because they weren’t just outsourcing opponents but also ensuring that they didn’t concede too many chances after taking leads.
In many ways, the underlying numbers foresaw a game like the one over the weekend. As good as FC Cincinnati have been all season, there are areas where they could improve. On the positive side, their attack has been deadly on all metrics. Luciano Acosta’s been a big help with nine goals, and the team’s been creating chances regularly; only Columbus Crew have a better expected goal value in the Eastern Conference.
New England Revolution See Off Toronto FC 2-1
New England Revolution kept their season ticking with a 2-1 win over Toronto FC over the weekend. They went down in the 11th minute via Deandre Kerr, but Bobby Wood got one back in the 33rd minute to keep the scores level at half-time.
Giacomo Vrioni’s 52nd-minute strike turned out to be the winner, as New England climbed to second place on the Eastern Conference table. It wasn’t the most convincing performance, but England got the job done. They had 12 shots on goal but conceded 14 and had 55% of the possession. They’ll need to do much better against FC Cincinnati if they want all three points.
For now, they’ve given themselves a good platform to challenge FC Cincinnati in the fight for Eastern Conference glory.
The Double Act of Bobby Wood and Carles Gill has Come Good for New England
Bobby Wood and Carles have scored seven goals each this season to help New England climb to second place on the Eastern Conference table. There was a feeling earlier in the season that they lacked one out-and-out goalscorer, but they’ve compensated for that with two regular contributors.
Gill and Wood are closer to midfielders than forwards, but their versatility has made it difficult for defenses to mark them. They tend to float around and pull defenders out of their comfort zone, which makes it very difficult to come up with a defensive scheme. There are times when this doesn’t work, and an out-and-out goalscorer would be more helpful, but they seem to be getting by for the time being.
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