San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals Predictions, Odds, Picks

• Surprisingly close pitching matchup
• Can crashing Nationals take one against soaring Padres
• X-factors to watch

San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals Odds

Odds presented by: DraftKings Sportsbook

San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals Trends to Watch

• Padres are 17-5 in their last 22 Sunday games
• Padres are 5-12 in their last 17 road games
• Padres are 4-10 in their last 14 road games vs. a right-handed starter
• Padres are 2-8 in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing record
• Padres are 1-6 in their last 7 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5
• Over is 10-2 in Padres last 12 Sunday games
• Padres are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Washington
• Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings
• Nationals are 8-1 in their last 9 home games vs. a right-handed starter
• Nationals are 0-5 in their last 5 overall
• Nationals are 0-5 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record
• Under is 12-2 in Nationals last 14 Sunday games
• Over is 7-2 in Nationals last 9 games vs. a right-handed starter
• Over is 6-2 in Nationals last 8 overall

San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals Predictions and Picks

Garcia’s 2021 record: (36-31-2)

How to Watch San Diego vs Washington

Surprisingly Close Pitching Matchup

Based on the reputation by name alone, anybody might think that the Nationals have the clear pitching advantage when Max Scherzer faces off against Joe Musgrove.

But take a look at this season in a vacuum and the difference in the numbers to this point isn’t as drastic as one might assume. Let’s start with Scherzer, who has been his usual unhittable self. The 36-year-old is 7-4 this season, ranks 12th in baseball in ERA (2.66), seventh in strikeouts (134), and fourth in WHIP (0.88).

That said his last outing before the break was a brutal one against this very same San Diego team. The man who started the All-Star Game for the NL lasted just 3.2 innings and gave up seven earned runs on five hits including two home runs.

That start was of course the outlier of the season — he had given up just seven runs in his past six combined starts prior to that.

Joe Musgrove has been quietly dominant this year as well. Musgrove is 5-7 overall but ranks 17th in baseball in ERA (2.93), 24th in strikeouts (117), and eighth in WHIP (0.95).

However much like Scherzer, arguably his worst start of the season also came against the Nationals when he gave up five runs in five innings and picked up a no-decision. He’s struggled overall in his last three starts, giving up 11 earned runs in 13.1 innings, but should be expected to bounce back after a well-earned break.

Padres Mashing, Nationals Flailing

The game isn’t over yet, but once again the Padres were hitting the ball all over the park and the Nationals find themselves trying to avoid yet another loss.

A quick look at San Diego — to call the top of the lineup dominant in recent weeks would be a significant understatement. Here’s how the top four hitters — Tommy Pham, Jake Cronenworth, Fernando Tatis. Jr. and Manny Machado — in the Padres lineup did through six innings yesterday: 10-of-12 with two walks, six RBIs and five runs scored.

The Nationals offense wasn’t lifeless — Ryan Zimmerman hit a three-run home run in the third inning — but they haven’t been able to keep pace with San Diego. The loss would be the 11th in their past 13 games as Washington would see its 40-38 record fall all the way to 42-49 as their slim playoff chances continue to fade.

X-factors to Watch on Both Sides

Usually for an x-factor to watch, one way to decide is who is hot right now? Considering the Padres have scored 32 (!!!) runs the past 15 innings, that doesn’t really narrow it down.

So we’re going to go slightly off the radar with Tommy Pham. Pham was a dominant 4-for-6 with a home run, two RBI, a walk a steal and FIVE runs scored on Friday and continues to add depth to this lineup. Pham i’s 8-for-his-last-10 and has reached base in 10 of 12 plate appearances in the last two games.

As for Washington, it’s got to be Kyle Schwarber. Schwarber has hit 25 home runs this year, 23 of which have come off of righties (to no surprise). His .976 OPS against righties is the best on the team, and if the Nationals are going to out-slug the Padres, it’s because Schwarber helped them do it.