Rangers vs Mariners: Can Seattle Close the Gap in the AL West?

• Dane Dunning has only started one game in 2023
• Julio Rodriguez has an on-base percentage of .278
• The Rangers are 7-3 against AL West opponents in 2023

Rangers vs Mariners Odds

Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Rangers vs Mariners Pick

• Mariners Moneyline  (-190 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

Rangers vs Mariners Prediction

The Rangers' offense has gone missing of late, scoring just one run in the first two games of the series. That isn’t going to get any easier as they face an elite arm in Luis Castillo. The Rangers will also have Dane Dunning on the mound, a pitcher who has spent the season in the bullpen. He will not be able to go deep in the game, forcing Texas to go to their questionable bullpen who will be without one of their top relievers in Dunning. We expect the Mariners to complete the sweep and climb closer to the AL West lead.

Texas Rangers Predictions

The Rangers (21-14) have had the most surprising start in all of baseball. After being viewed as a fringe wildcard team coming into the year, they have looked to be among the league’s best. They have done so with an offense that is absolutely pounding opponent pitching. What’s more impressive is that they have done it largely without star Corey Seager, who has been out most of the year with an injury. However, pitching has been a bit of an issue. Their rotation is now without Jacob deGrom, and their bullpen has had some struggles. Given they will have a starter on the mound that can’t go six innings, that will be a problem for the Rangers today.

Dane Dunnings (2-0, 1.42 ERA) will get the start for the Rangers for the second time this season. The 28-year-old has been in the bullpen after two tough seasons as a starter for Texas, and it has paid off. He has looked fantastic and gives this Rangers team a great bullpen option that can cover multiple innings. His other start of the season came last week against the Angels, who he held to two hits and zero runs over five innings. It was an excellent bounce-back after two rough outings coming out of the bullpen. Dunning has faced the Mariners many times and has done relatively well overall (.246 opponent BA). The biggest problem is that he likely can’t go more than five innings, meaning this shaky Rangers’ bullpen will have a lot of work to do. That is assuming Dunning can even get to five innings, which is not a given.

The Rangers have been one of baseball's best offensive teams, ranking in the top four in batting average, runs, home runs, and RBIs. They have a ton of power and have tough outs at every part of the lineup. However, their success has mainly come from their hitting-friendly Choctaw Stadium. That is where they have hit 31 of their 46 home runs this season. We saw Texas struggle in Seattle in the first two games, unable to score runs despite getting runners on base. Now, they’ll need to find a way to generate power and runs on the road against one of the best pitchers in baseball.

Seattle Mariners Predictions

The Mariners (18-18) have been awful to start 2023, but they found their stride last week by winning six of their seven games. Two of those came against the division-rival Astros, making them all the more impressive. The problem for Seattle has been their ability to generate runs, as their talented lineup has struggled mightily. Conversely, their pitching has been fantastic. They have a solid bullpen and one of the league's best rotations, helping them stay afloat in the AL West. They will have their best arm on the mound tonight, so we like them to win.

Mariners’ ace Luis Castillo (2-0,2.38 ERA) will get the start against the Rangers today. While he is coming off a rocky start against Houston last week, he has been fantastic this season. Castillo has been giving up some hits but has not let them translate into runs, leading to a stellar ERA. He is the best pitcher the Mariners have, and this will be the first time the Rangers have seen him. With Castillo’s impressive pitch arsenal, that is going to be a significant factor today. Look for Castillo to cruise against the Rangers, outlasting Dunning by at least two innings.

There is no way around it; the Seattle offense has been bad. While they have had a breakout year from Jarred Kelenic, star center fielder Julio Rodriguez has been miserable. He owns a .278 on-base percentage, which is especially bad considering he has been their leadoff hitter for much of the season. While his struggles have been the most detrimental to the Mariners, he is far from the only one to start slow. Fortunately, they will have a chance to bounce back against Dunning and this Texas bullpen tonight. Even if they can’t solve Dunning, he will only be around for a maximum of five innings. That means the Rangers will have to go to a bullpen that is missing its top arm, giving the Mariners a significant advantage.

How to Watch

• What: Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners
• When: Wednesday, May 10, 2023, at 3:40 PM ET
• Where: T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA
• How to Watch: MLB.tv