Some of the top talent in the AL West will be on full display Monday when the Mariners host the Rangers. Texas enters this game with the best record in the division at 20-13. Seattle is 3.5 games back from Texas at 17-17. They can quickly make up this deficit, which might happen this week as the Mariners have been playing great baseball. The first pitch is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET from T-Mobile Park in Seattle. Let’s look at the best ways to make money on the series opener.
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
The price for the Rangers in this game doesn’t equate to their probability to win. The Mariners have a stud going in Logan Gilbert, but the Rangers can compete with Jon Gray on the hill. Seattle being labeled as a -172 favorite is way too low, and Texas at +146 is slightly high. We expect Seattle to play well in this contest, but it’s a big ask to beat the Rangers by multiple runs. Texas has a tremendous offense that will keep them alive in this game.
The Rangers are -152 on the run line and we believe this is a viable betting option. They can lose by a run with this wager, and our bet will still be successful.
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Texas just lost their ace pitcher, Jacob deGrom, with a forearm issue. deGrom may be forced into Tommy John surgery, but this isn’t certain. All that’s known is deGrom won’t be with the team for at least the next few weeks as he tries to rehab the injury. deGrom’s injury kills some momentum for the Rangers, as they were rolling. Texas is still 6-4 in their past ten games, but so are the surging Mariners, who are relatively healthy.
Gray will take the ball for the Rangers. He is 1-1 with a 4.4 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP. The WHIP is our biggest concern, as he consistently leaves balls over the plate. Some pitchers can get away with this, but Gray doesn’t have a lot of movement on his offspeed pitches. When he hangs pitches, hitters typically take advantage of the mistake and drive the baseball.
Gray has allowed 29 hits, and 14 walks over 30.2 innings. Additionally, he has allowed six homers, so look for the Mariners to jump on pitches early. Lucky for Gray, he is pitching for a stout offense with multiple power hitters. Gilbert will be on the mound for Seattle, and he has been strong this season when it comes to strikeouts. The pitcher has 40 strikeouts in 33.2 innings, with just four homers allowed.
Gilbert doesn’t miss up in the zone much, which keeps the ball in the stadium. When he misses, it’s usually low, and it leads to hard line drives. However, any club will live with mistakes that aren’t deadly, like easy home run pitches. Gilbert is going to shove, but the Rangers are good enough to manufacture some timely hits. These timely hits will result in a Texas cover at +1.5.
The Rangers have been led by Adolis Garcia in terms of power. Without Corey Seager in the lineup, Garcia has been forced to take a larger role at the dish. The right fielder is batting .260, but he has blasted nine homers with 36 RBI. We expect him to put together some strong at-bats against Gilbert.
Garcia is a do-all player for the team and has given the big spark when the Rangers need a ball to leave the yard. The most consistent hitter for Texas has been Jonah Heim. Heim is slashing .313/.384/.566 on the season with six homers. He is 13th in OPS at .950, and these are out of the catcher spot.
Texas has an above-average lineup, and Heim is the catalyst. He is a player they can build around for years, and it’s even better than he’s the catcher. Any team with a catcher positioned 13th in OPS will be successful. He’ll need to stay hot against Seattle to neutralize Gilbert on Monday.
The Mariners have faced their fair share of injuries, including Robbie Ray heading to the 15-Day IL on May 3rd. One major injury to a team’s star can derail a season, but Seattle has hung in during trying times. Teoscar Hernandez and Eugenio Suarez are two of the veterans leading the charge. Both players have come up with big hits in high-leverage moments, but it wasn’t helping the team win early in the year.
This has changed in the last portion of April, and Jarred Kelenic has been one of the group's most exciting players to watch. Kelenic couldn't make contact with the baseball last season, but he can’t stop hitting this year. It was one of the biggest turnarounds in MLB history.
Even though Kelenic was young last season, he is still a top prospect that people expect to deliver. Kelenic is slashing .298/.357/.570, and is the most consistent hitter on the team. He is occasionally chasing out of the zone, but he has been much better in 2023 compared to 2022. Look for the outfielder to shine, but it won’t be enough to beat Texas by two runs.
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