San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers: It’s Unclear Who Wins This Game, but Expect Runs

• Underrated Dodgers pitcher faces off with up-and-down Padres lefty
• Padres flexing revamped lineup in NL West showdown
• X-factors to watch

Padres at Dodgers Odds

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San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers Pick

The Padres have split their two games since acquiring Juan Soto, Josh Bell and Brandon Drury, but this series is the real test – how they stack up against the best team in the NL in rival Los Angeles. Gonsolin has been great this year but trending in the wrong direction. Manea hasn’t held opponents to fewer than two runs in nearly two months. It’s unclear who wins this game, but expect runs, so we’re going to take the over.

Padres to win

Over

Pick made on 08/05/2022 at 00:16 AM EST

Padres at Dodgers Betting Trends to Watch (As of 8.4)

• Padres are 5-1 in their last 6 overall
• Padres are 12-2 in their last 14 Friday games
• Padres are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. National League West
• Padres are 7-3 in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record
• Padres are 6-13 in their last 19 road games
• Over is 8-3-1 in Padres last 12 Friday games
• Over is 7-3-1 in Padres last 11 overall
• Over is 3-0-1 in Padres last 4 road games
• Under is 5-2 in the last 7 head-to-head meetings
• Dodgers are 40-15 in last 55 head-to-head meetings
• Dodgers are 54-17 in their last 71 home games
• Dodgers are 47-16 in their last 63 vs. National League West
• Dodgers are 42-17 in their last 59 games vs. a left-handed starter
• Dodgers are 51-23 in their last 74 vs. a team with a winning record
• Under is 21-4-1 in Dodgers last 26 Friday games
• Under is 5-2-1 in Dodgers last 8 home games vs. a left-handed starter
• Under is 17-7-3 in Dodgers last 27 vs. National League West

Garcia’s 2022 record: (30-21)

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Padres Can Finally Match Dodgers Power

It’s been a long time coming, but after a monstrous final day at the trade deadline, the Padres now appear to be on equal footing (or close to it) with the Dodgers when it comes to the starting lineups.

San Diego acquired one of the top five players in the game when they traded for Juan Soto and added another power hitter in Josh Bell in the process. Soto isn’t quite having the year he’s capable of, and still has 21 home runs, 46 RBIs a .410 OBP and an .894 OPS.

Bell is hitting .300 on the season with 14 home runs, 57 RBIs and an .876 OPS to provide additional pop from the left side. Then, there’s Brandon Drury, who San Diego acquired from Cincinnati who promptly belted a grand slam in his first at bat with his new team Wednesday.

Add to it that Fernando Tatis Jr. has started to face live pitching as well as Manny Machado and San Diego’s order will soon be as dangerous as anybody’s.

Dodgers Hold Pitching Advantage

Everybody thinks about Clayton Kershaw, Julio Urias or even the struggling Walker Buehler when thinking about the Dodgers pitching staff and rightfully so – all have been some of the best pitchers in the game over the past few seasons.

But for some reason, Tony Gonsolin has flown under the radar all season long. Gonsolin ranks in the top five in baseball with a 12-1 record (T-3rd), 0.90 WHIP (3rd) and 2.41 ERA (5th). That said, he has struggled of late.

Through July 7th he had a 1.62 ERA and hadn’t given up more than two earned runs in a single outing. Over his past three starts, Gonsolin has allowed 11 combined runs in 16 innings.

His expected ERA this year is 3.05 (.64 above where it currently sits) which could be a sign that water may soon find its level, but even still that’s a well-above average pitcher.The Padres counter with Sean Manea who has not been as effective as they’d hoped since traded for him from Oakland earlier this season. Manea is 6-5 with a 4.25 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 111 strikeouts in 110 innings.

While Manea has been able to throw 13 quality starts this season, he’s also allowed three earned runs or more 11 times. He’s held opponents to fewer than two runs just four times this year, with the last occasion coming on June 8.

X-Factors to Watch

We usually try to pick someone under the radar for an x-factor, but in his first road game with his new team, the Padres x-factor is Soto. Soto has done the majority of his damage against righties, batting .260 with a .434 OBP and .971 OPS.

He now sets the tone for the team.

For Los Angeles, we’re looking at Trayce Thompson. The younger brother of Golden State Warriors star Klay Thompson has raked since he was traded from the Tigers minor league system and is hitting .297 with a .435 OBP and 1.002 OPS in 12 games since the All-Star break.

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