MLB Betting Trends, Saturday, May 27

There have been some interesting trends this week in MLB. Some teams have been trending upward, while other clubs are beginning to fall apart over a quarter of the way through the regular season. Trends are important to note in MLB because the game is driven by numbers. There are some trends that aren’t worth much consideration, but many can help place more profitable bets. We update this article weekly to reflect all the trend changes taking place throughout baseball. Make sure to check back at the end of each week for the best betting information surrounding MLB.

MLB Betting Trends 

There have been some interesting trends this week in MLB. Some teams have been trending upward, while other clubs are beginning to fall apart over a quarter of the way through the regular season. Trends are important to note in MLB because the game is driven by numbers. There are some trends that aren’t worth much consideration, but many can help place more profitable bets. We update this article weekly to reflect all the trend changes taking place throughout baseball. Make sure to check back at the end of each week for the best betting information surrounding MLB. 

The Astros are Back 

The Houston Astros started the season very shaky, but they have rebounded with a vengeance. The Astros are still in second place in the American League West by three games, but they’re the favorites to win the division and a top-five team in the World Series future market. The Astros have won 8 of their past ten games and currently hold a 29-21 record. Since May 9, they have won 12 of their past 15 contests. The team has been led by Yordan Alvarez, who is constantly making game-winning adjustments at the plate.

The outfielder is batting .293 on the season with 12 homers and 46 RBI. He also has a .405 OBP, which has allowed other players like Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker to drive him in on the bases. Houston is -135 to win the AL West, and this is a future market worth playing. The difference in talent between the Astros and everyone else in 2022 was massive, and the team hasn’t drastically changed. 

The Rangers have played their best possible baseball and only hold a three-game lead in the division. The Angels and Mariners don’t have the teams to stay on the same field as the Astros, and Houston can beat Oakland with their eyes closed. Take advantage of this future line, as Houston has been dominating as of late, and we don’t see this changing. 

The Rays Keep Scoring

The Tampa Bay Rays hold the best record in MLB, and they’re winning machines. On Friday, they beat the Los Angeles Dodgers by a 9-3 margin. The Dodgers didn’t have their best starter on the mound in Noah Syndergaard, but nine runs off Los Angeles’ pitching staff is very impressive. Scoring has been the norm for Tampa Bay, as they have the second-best run differential at +120 behind the Rangers. The Rays don’t allow a ton of runs, but they’ve still been going over the total consistently.

Tampa Bay has gone over in seven straight games, and they’re 32-18-3 in this market throughout the season. They’re 19-10-1 for over-bettors at home this year, so they’ve been profitable scorers in every ballpark. Tampa Bay leads the league in homers with 99 on the season. The next closest team is the Braves, who are 14 long balls behind Tampa Bay. Bet on the Rays over, and you’ll be making money. 

Run Line Underdogs 

In baseball, the underdog is listed on the run line at +1.5. This means they can be within one run, and your bet will still prevail. It’s very hard to win by multiple runs in baseball unless a team is facing the Oakland Athletics. Run line underdogs have been the most profitable group against the spread in MLB this season. 

In the past 30 days, underdogs are 243-15, which is a 61.1% winning rate. The difference in home and away splits for underdogs on the run line is very minimal. Away underdogs have covered 61.5%, and home underdogs have covered 60.4% of games over the past 30 days. The numbers are similar over the entire season, as dogs have covered 57.5% of the time, but they’ve been within one run 60% of the time on the road. 

Away teams in baseball are guaranteed nine at-bats, so this gives underdogs nine guaranteed scoring opportunities. The same can’t be said for the home team, who won’t bat in the bottom of the ninth if they have a lead.

Straight-Up Trends - Season to Date