MLB Rookie of the Year 2024: Paul Skenes Back in Contention

• Paul Skenes has closed the gap between him and Jackson Merrill on the oddsboard

• Skenes has one or two appearances left in the season to make a case for the award

• Luis Gil is the new betting favorite to win the AL Rookie of the Year award

Since rounding back into form, Paul Skenes has steadily chipped away at the gap between him and Jackson Merrill for first on the oddsboard. With only one or two appearances on the mound remaining in the season, Skenes will need to be near perfect to strengthen his case for the award while Jackson Merrill potentially gets shut down after the San Diego Padres secure a playoff berth.

In the AL, the New York Yankees Luis Gil has been listed as the new betting favorite to win the Rookie of the Year award after a hot stretch of play. Colton Cowser still trails right behind him, as well as fellow teammate Austin Wells. With no one pulling away as a deserving favorite, the AL Rookie of the Year award race may continue to see drastic shifts in odds until the last game of the season.

AL Rookie of the Year Award Odds

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NL Rookie of the Year Odds

MLB Rookie of the Year Predictions and Odds to Win the Award

NL - Jackson Merrill -230 at FanDuel

After being listed as high as -1000 to win the NL Rookie of the Year award at the start of the month, Jackson Merrill’s odds are now down to as low as -230. His bat seemingly cooled off since the calendar flipped to September, going through multiple stretches of play without generating a Hit.

His regression is Paul Skenes gain, now entering the final week of the season listed much closer together on the oddsboard. Should you have managed to wager on Skenes earlier in the year, the drop in Merrill’s odds have created a hedge opportunity should you feel like this is a true toss up. Merrill may also be prone to sitting a game or two out as the Padres inch closer to securing a playoff berth.

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AL - Luis Gil -150 at FanDuel

After losing his lead for first earlier in the season, Luis Gil is back on top after a hot stretch of play. After stumbling against the Cleveland Guardians and Chicago White Sox at the end of August, Gil has seemingly rounded back into form by conceding just 10 Hits Against and 2 Earned Runs Allowed in three outings in September.

While he is capped to just one or two more appearances this season, Gil will need to be near perfect in order to solidify his case for the award. Especially with his closest contenders Colton Cowser and Austin Wells getting the benefit of playing in every game, giving themselves more opportunities to chip away at Gil’s lead. In a wide open race, it may be worth sprinkling a wager on the longer shots as no one in the field has made a case to be the deserving favorite.

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AL - Colton Cowser +270 at BetMGM

Once listed as the betting favorite for a majority of the season, Colton Cowser is now on the outside looking in after a cold stretch of play plummeted his odds on the oddsboard. Like Merrill, Cowser also had multiple stretches at the start of September where he struggled to generate just one Hit.

Fortunately for the Baltimore Orioles batter, he will have multiple opportunities to reclaim his lead for first while Gil is prone to a volatile swing with just one or two more appearances left in the season. Momentum is on his side as Cowser has been hot in the last week of play, generating eight Hits and four Runs Scored in his last seven outings. With Gil’s odds prone to crumbling with one bad outing, sprinkle a wager on Cowser now while he is in the midst of a hot stretch of play.

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AL - Austin Wells +340 at BetMGM

It has been a forgettable month of play for Wells since the calendar flipped to September, generating just 7 Total Hits, 2 Runs Scored, and 11 RBIs in 52 At Bats. Even after an underwhelming month of play, Wells is still listed as one of the contenders to win the AL Rookie of the Year award. That goes to show how weak the field is this year as no one has made a case to be the deserving favorite. 

Luckily for Wells, he also gets the same benefit as Colton Cowser as both offensive players will get more appearances to help build their case for the award while the current leader Luis Gil is capped to just one or two more outings. That makes Wells also worth a wager as we may see a drastic shift in odds should Gil struggle in his next appearance.

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NL - Shota Imanaga +20000 at BetMGM

Since going through a prolonged slump in the middle of the season, Shota Imanaga never managed to round back into dominant form as he struggled to string together a hot stretch of play. His struggles have bled over into September, conceding 12 Hits Against and 5 Earned Runs Allowed in three outings so far this month.

Even at astronomically high odds, Imanaga is not worth a wager as a long shot as Paul Skenes currently leads the Cubs pitcher in ERA, WHIP, and FIP. With only one or two outings left in the season, Imanaga does not have nearly enough time for him to build back up his case for the award with Paul Skenes and Jackson Merrill locked into a two horse race.

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MLB Rookie of the Year Award Winner - My Pick

NL - Paul Skenes +165 at BetMGM

With Jackson Merrill struggling earlier in the month, Paul Skenes has closed the gap between the two on the oddsboard as we enter the last week of the regular season. Momentum is also on the Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher side as he has managed to generate 22 Total Strikeouts while only conceding 14 Hits Against and 2 Earned Runs Allowed in his last three outings.

While a Cy Young Award is out of his reach, Skenes is still a viable contender for the Rookie of the Year award with potentially two appearances left in the season. Skenes may also benefit from Merrill getting shut down later in the week should the Padres rest their key players after securing a spot in the playoffs. Should you have wagered on Merrill at a more favorable number earlier in the season, then Skenes is worth a wager now as a hedge to help secure a profit.

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Rookie of the Year History

Winning the Rookie of the Year award is more than just an accomplishment, it is also an indicator of future success and a potential turning point for rebuilding teams to take the next step knowing that they have a franchise player in their organization.

Plenty of big names have won the Rookie of the Year award over the past few years and have continued to succeed after a hot start to their careers. Whether it is a pitcher or a batter, knowing you have a set-in-stone star in the lineup gives an organization major relief as they can attempt to build around them.

Previous AL Rookie of the Year Winners

The table below shows the last ten winners of the AL Rookie of the Year award. Gunnar Henderson was one of the top choices to win the award starting the 2023 MLB Season.

Previous NL Rookie of the Year Winners

The table below shows the last ten winners of the NL Rookie of the Year award. Carroll won the award last season after starting the 2023 season as an underdog.

How to Read MLB Rookie of the Year Odds

Like in every bet you make, it’s vital to understand how odds work. With Jackson Merrill’s odds listed at -230, then you would have to wager $230 to profit $100. Should you wager on a Paul Skenes at +165, then a $100 wager profits you $165.

How to Choose the Best Sportsbook for Betting on the Rookie of the Year Award

Odds can vary between top online sportsbooks which makes it important to have as many books as you can get in order to line shop. When looking to wager on Paul Skenes, you can see that his odds are as high as +165 at BetMGM and as low as +160 at FanDuel Sportsbook. That is a difference of $5 in profit should Paul Skenes win the Rookie of the Year award.

Each sportsbook also has a unique new user sign up offer that you can read in the table below. With Caesars Sportsbook, you can get up to $1,000 back in the form of bonus bets should you lose your first wager after creating an account with the WSN promo code WSN1000.

*Bonus Bets Expire in 7 Days. One New Customer Offer Only. Add’l terms.